Politicians jockey as U.K. drifts
As England trailed Iceland at halftime in the Euro 2016 soccer tournament, one fan’s comment went viral on Twitter: “(Team coach Roy) Hodgson, the only man in England with a coherent plan for leaving Europe.”
It was a satirical barb aimed at the ineptness of the coach and his team.
But it was funny because it also spoke to the sense no one is in charge in England.
The blizzard after Thursday’s referendum is starting to be felt across Great Britain.
The rabidly pro-Leave Sun tabloid finally admitted to readers the vote to leave the European Union will cost them in terms of lower benefits, more expensive holidays, higher cellphone bills and fewer jobs. On the plus side, it boasted: “It’s good news for first time home buyers.”
Reality is biting as Britain is battered by fierce economic gusts. Yet in the eye of the storm, all was calm.
In the House of Commons, Prime Minister David Cameron, who resigned after the vote Friday, said there is no hurry to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon and begin negotiations over Britain’s exit.
“All key decisions await the arrival of the new prime minister,” he said.
Meanwhile, across the aisle, the hapless Labour opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, rose to calls of “resign” from his rebellious lawmakers. Britons won’t thank MPs for “indulging in factional manoeuvring,” he said, before sitting down to an embarrassed silence.
It is unprecedented that at a time of acute crisis there is literally no one steering the great British ship of state.
The Leave campaigners apparently have no plan. Nick Cohen, writing in The Guardian newspaper accused the journalists turned politicians, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, of having contempt for practical questions.
“Never has a revolution in Britain’s position in the world been advocated with such carelessness,” he said.
Gove dismissed criticism of Leave’s economic plan by saying “people in this country have had enough of experts.” By Sunday, his wife was taking to Facebook, hoping “clever people” might offer to “lend their advice and expertise.”
It’s hard to see an immediate end to the sclerosis. Britain is rudderless and drifting. The only parts of the multinational state that are plowing ahead are Scotland and Northern Ireland, both of which voted to remain, both of which have their own governments.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has indicated preparations are underway for a second independence referendum.
Martin McGuinness, the Northern Irish deputy first minister, has called for a poll to enable Irish unification — a dangerous demand that is likely to revive worries of sectarian violence.
Many Scots are more convinced than ever that their future lies in Europe, not in a marriage with England, where the majority of people hold opinions with which they fundamentally disagree. A poll in the Sunday Post newspaper suggested 59 per cent of Scots would vote for independence if a vote were held now.
“Thursday saw the gulf in political culture between Scotland and England widen to an aching chasm,” wrote veteran Herald columnist Iain Macwhirter.
Given the determination of the majority of Scots and Northern Irish to remain in the EU, the breakup of U.K. may be imminent — an irony given the stated goal of many Leavers was to make Britain great again.
Yet voices are emerging that suggest another great British tradition — the art of the compromise — may preserve the union.
Brendan O’Leary, a professor of political science at University of Pennsylvania and former adviser to governments on Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement, suggests a constitutional compromise that would see Scotland and Northern Ireland remain in the EU, while England and Wales would leave.
He points out that parts of the U.K., such as the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, are not part of the EU. There is also a precedent — Greenland, which is part of Denmark, seceded from Europe but Denmark remained in what was then the European Economic Community.
The Scots may be more willing to buy into this arrangement than might immediately seem to make sense, given the bullish polling numbers for independence. For one thing, states like Spain are hardly likely to be any better disposed to allowing Scotland to join the EU now than they were in 2014, given concerns over Catalonia.
For another, a Scottish government dashing to the altar with the EU would have trouble explaining to voters why it still wants to keep the pound, the Queen and the BBC.
Westminster must eventually act on the referendum result, no matter how many people point out that it is not binding on Parliament, or that the Scottish parliament may try to block implementation.
It’s possible the Conservative Party elects a pro-Remain MP like Home Secretary Theresa May or Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as its next leader, and he or she uses a snap general election as a second referendum.
But, given the pro-Leave nature of the Tory base, that’s a long shot.
No, the vote is as immutable as its critics said it would be. Britain is as disunited as at any time in its recent history. But it is not yet broken irrevocably.
The English and Welsh have voted to leave the EU and are already feeling the chilling effects of Brexit. But one way or another, there is a chance that the Scots and Northern Irish may yet come in from the cold.