Report warns of rising ‘ mega- fire’ risk in B. C.
Firefi ghting won’t be enough to stop devastating blazes; study calls for new emphasis on prevention
As the planet heats up and the risk of “mega- fires” rises, B. C. will no longer be able to lean on its world- class wildfire- fighting teams to keep people and property safe, according to a draft provincial document.
The Forests Ministry paper, called Climate Change Adaption Action Plan for Wildfire Management 2014- 2024, suggests fire prevention should become the province’s top priority.
“It is not an option to continue to increase fire suppression response and associated costs, because even the most aggressive action would neither be safe nor effective for the extreme wildfire events such as those seen in Kelowna in 2003 and Slave Lake in 2010,” reads the draft, obtained through an access to information request.
“During these events, suppression response cannot be relied upon to protect communities or natural resource values. The only protection provided will be the protection established before the fire, provided through wildland- urban interface fuel reduction and landscape fire management.”
The document, dated last April, says the average temperature in B. C. is predicted to rise by four degrees Celsius by 2080. That warming trend, combined with the higher rate of wildfire spread in forests affected by the mountain pine beetle, means that “mega fires” will be increasingly common.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada has predicted that severe wildfires will happen at least 50 per cent more often by 2050.
Besides the safety concerns, extreme wildfire seasons can have a huge economic impact. The 2003 fire season cost B. C. $ 1.3 billion in firefighting costs and indirect economic losses.
The draft suggests B. C. approach the problem by investing in “fire planning and management at all scales.”
The proposed strategies include encouraging private landowners to participate in the FireSmart Canada program, which teaches homeowners about planting fire- safe vegetation and shows developers how to plan projects with wildfire prevention in mind. The plan also calls for communities in high- risk areas to develop fire protection strategies that include removing potential fuels like dry brush in areas where wilderness meets human habitation.
On a broader scale, the draft paper suggests bringing together local governments, First Nations, the forest industry and natural resource managers to create a widespread system of fuel breaks — things like roadways and other gaps in vegetation that can prevent wildfires from spreading. It also calls for fire prevention measures to be included in all land management planning and communication strategies to keep the public informed about wildfire risks.
Documents released by the Forests Ministry also include a 2012 discussion paper from the Wildfire Management Branch that warns of the alarming impacts climate change — combined with pine- beetle die- off — could have on the size, frequency and severity of wildfires in the southern Interior.
The report predicts that by 2080, the region will experience:
• An increase in the size of major fires, doubling from an average of 7.9 square kilometres to 19 square kilometres.
• An increase in the severity of fires, by 40 per cent in spring, 95 per cent in summer and 30 per cent in fall.
• A longer fire season and a 30- per- cent jump in the number of fires.
• A four to seven per cent increase in severe fire behaviour, such as crowning, when fire jumps from the top of one tree to another.
“Along with increasing wildfire potential, the costs of suppression response and the economic losses will also increase exponentially, including losses to communities, natural resource values and midterm timber supply,” the paper predicts.
The province in 2004 identified 17,300 square kilometres potentially at risk of wildfires — 6,850 square kilometres of that high risk. To date, just 430 square kilometres have been managed to reduce fuels.
“The benefit of this initiative was clearly demonstrated in 2009 and 2010 wildfire seasons when three communities — West Kelowna, Alexis Creek and Barnhartvale — were spared major wildfire damage as a result of successful fuel reduction projects,” the paper said.
As a result of the 2003 Kelowna wildfires and the 2004 report into those fires, the provincial and federal governments spent $ 37 million on a wildfire prevention program. The province added another $ 25 million in 2011 to assist local governments and First Nations to reduce the risk to wildfires.