Centrist Tories may have found their champion
MONTREAL Barely two years ago, Jean Charest ruled out a run for the federal Conservative leadership because he could not see a path to victory. Now the former Quebec premier is once again seriously considering a bid, with a decision apparently to come over the next week or so. What changed?
In a replay of the scenario that attended Andrew Scheer’s resignation at the end of 2019, Charest’s name predictably resurfaced on the list of possible successors to Erin O’Toole almost as soon as the latter was ousted from the leadership. His phone has been ringing off the hook.
But the difference this time is the people who are doing the calling.
Two years ago, many of those who were pushing Charest to run were former supporters, as often as not long-time associates from the Brian Mulroney era and the bygone days of the Progressive Conservative party.
Within the more recent ranks of the Conservative party, enthusiasm for a Charest bid was at best tepid.
Back then, for instance, the former premier could not persuade then-Quebec lieutenant Alain Rayes — along with other Quebec MPs — to back his bid.
Instead Rayes opted to sit out the campaign.
At the same time, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, then the leading provincial voice within the Canadian conservative movement, made it clear he would use his significant influence to keep Charest (and others like him, such as Peter MacKay) from taking the helm.
Stephen Harper would not give the former premier his blessing.
But since then, Kenney’s star has faded. As he fights for his political life in Alberta, he is no longer in a position to play the larger leadership role that was once his. And while Harper remains a force within the party, time out of office has also taken a toll on his influence.
For his part, Rayes is all in this time. Earlier this week he resigned his caucus post, the better to participate in the leadership battle. He says he is looking for a fiscally conservative but socially progressive leader. He has been speaking with Charest. By all indications, he would be willing to play a leading role in his leadership campaign.
At the same time, a movement to elect a leader liable to champion a serious climate change agenda is afoot.
This week, former deputy leader Lisa Raitt announced she was spearheading a Conservative group committed to ensuring that the next leader brings a comprehensive climate change policy to party members.
As a former federal environment minister and as one of the first premiers to introduce carbon pricing in his province, Charest has a climate change track record few Conservatives can match these days.
From the perspective of those looking for a strong candidate with credible climate change credentials and/or a more progressive outlook, the stakes in this leadership campaign are higher than in 2020.
With MacKay and O’Toole as the main contenders in that battle, the many Conservatives who believed the party needed to carve a more centrist path to power assumed that one way or another, they would end up with a like-minded leader. Rather than concentrate their forces behind one or the other, they dispersed in the two camps.
But with Ottawa MP Pierre Poilievre as the perceived front-runner, the outlook could not be more different and the divide starker.
For the many Conservatives who supported O’Toole’s efforts to recast the party along more mainstream lines, the scorched earth brand of conservatism Poilievre practises is a non-starter.
They feel his disdain for carbon pricing, his visceral opposition to a child-care social policy along the lines of Quebec’s popular program and, more recently, his flirtation with the convoy that has blockaded the federal capital along with strategic border points will make the party less rather than more attractive to mainstream voters.
They are looking for someone strong enough to beat him. In many Conservative minds, the upcoming battle is one for the soul of the party.
It is an open secret that Charest has always harboured prime ministerial ambitions. His first leadership run dates back almost 30 years to 1993. Even over his three-term tenure as premier, he continued to long for the federal pastures.
At the same time, Justin Trudeau leads a third-term government that is increasingly acting its age in the lethargic sense of the word.
All week, the prime minister and his team struggled to project the kind of energy voters would expect from a government in crisis management mode.
These days, it is easier to see a path to ousting the Liberals from office in the next election than it was two years ago, especially if they are to be led by an increasingly disengaged leader. From Charest’s perspective, that makes for an even stronger temptation to run.