Germany set for power shift as election looms
Conservative alliance in danger of losing power for first time in 15 years
Germany’s Social Democrats may be overtaking Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc for the first time in 15 years, setting the stage for a potential power shift in Europe’s biggest economy.
About a month before the Sept. 26 election, support for the SPD increased by two percentage points compared with the previous week to 23 per cent, while the CDU/CSU alliance dropped one point to 22 per cent, according to a Forsa poll for broadcasters RTL/ntv.
It was the first time the SPD led in the survey since October 2006. Forsa polled the party preferences of 2,504 people between Aug. 17 and Aug. 23. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
The survey underscores how momentum has shifted to the Social Democrats. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, the party’s chancellor candidate, is far more popular than Armin Laschet, the contender for Merkel’s bloc, according to polls asking Germans who they would prefer as their leader.
A former Hamburg mayor and trained labour lawyer, the 63year-old Scholz has played up his experience helping protect jobs and businesses from the fallout of the coronavirus. His low-key pragmatism has similarities to Merkel, who remains Germany’s most popular politician.
Laschet has struggled to convince voters of his leadership
potential. After a messy nomination battle, the 60-year-old state premier of North RhineWestphalia committed a series of gaffes on the campaign trail — including laughing in the midst of flood wreckage.
With Merkel leaving politics after 16 years as chancellor, her conservative alliance is in danger of losing power for the first time since she defeated the SPD’s Gerhard Schroeder in 2005.
The Social Democrats were briefly ahead of Merkel’s bloc in some other polls in early 2017, but Merkel went on to win the election by more than 10 points, securing a fourth term.
The party that wins the most support will have the opportunity to form a ruling coalition, which is getting increasingly complex. Six parties are likely to gain enough support to enter parliament, and recent polls point to a broad range of possible combinations.
The most likely outcome is a three-way alliance, with either the SPD or the conservative bloc at the helm. The Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats could also play a role in Germany’s next government.
The Greens gained one point to 18 per cent in the Forsa poll, while the FDP had 12 per cent, The far-right AfD was in fifth place with 10 per cent, and the Left was last with six per cent.