A division of their own
Who comes out on top in an NHL division of seven Canadian teams?
I don’t know about you, but I’m kind of pumped about this whole idea of a Canadian division. It’s the solution that makes the most sense if the NHL has any chance of playing a season in 2021.
There’s a mountain of work to be done before we get to the season; owners have to figure out how they’re going to pay for it all and the players are going to have to decide if they’re going to be more generous than they’ve already been in giving back to owners. Then there’s managing the politics, policies and health requirements of the pandemic, of course.
But let’s think of the good things. OK, maybe only one good thing. A division with seven Canadian teams playing only each other.
In a regular year, the Maple Leafs would be looking up at Tampa Bay and Boston, figuring out how to pass one or both of them while staving off a resurgent Montreal team and possibly a stronger Sabres presence.
By my figuring, the Leafs should make the post-season in the current Atlantic Division easily. They are built for the regular season. When healthy, with everyone playing the style espoused by Sheldon Keefe, and with the additions they’ve made, making the playoffs should be a given.
But now the twist. How would things look in a realigned Canadian division? A steady diet of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Heading to Vancouver to play three games in four nights against Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes and company. Battling Shea Weber and Carey Price every second Saturday or so.
There could be a fair bit of parity, based on last season’s results: Edmonton led all Canadian teams with a .585 points percentage, followed by Toronto (.579), Vancouver (.565), Calgary (.564), Winnipeg (.563), Montreal (.500), and Ottawa (.437).
But those numbers change quite a bit when you only count the all-Canadian games: Winnipeg (.750), Montreal (.733), Toronto (.643), Calgary (.633), Edmonton (.500), Vancouver (.393), and Ottawa (.333)
Outside of Ottawa, it looks like it could be a real race for playoff positions in this new division.
And we’ll presume — just for fun’s sake — only four make it, meaning a 1-vs-4, 2-vs-3 first round, with the champion going to some NHL final-four bubble. So now you have to ask yourself, which of these teams made the biggest strides in terms of off-season signings and trades? And which might be weaker?
PLAYOFF BOUND
Maple Leafs: T.J. Brodie, Zach Bogosian, Joe Thornton and Wayne Simmonds can all be difference makers in their own way. Certainly the Leafs are deeper, bigger and stronger, and their defence is more balanced. They lost forwards Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, who will be missed. They lost defencemen Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie, who won’t be missed quite as much. Their core forwards are going to put up points. And wins will follow. Since Auston Matthews arrived, the Maple Leafs have the eighth-best record in the NHL, the best among Canadian teams (171-106-39) and they haven’t missed the post-season. Flames: It looks like Calgary raided Vancouver (goalie Jacob Markstrom, defenceman Chris Tanev, forward Josh Leivo) in free agency, more than making up for what they lost (goalie Cam Talbot, Brodie, forward Tobias Rieder). There’s a balance through the Flames lineup, with core players from every age group and Geoff Ward is firmly in control. The Flames disappointed in the post-season, but didn’t everybody not named Tampa Bay? And since the arrival of Matthew Tkachuk, the Flames have only missed the playoffs once.
ON THE BUBBLE
Canucks: Their core of young players rivals the core the Leafs have built around. But outside of adding Nate Schmidt — an excellent addition — the Canucks went sideways. Goaltender Braden Holtby will probably be a step down from the departed Markstrom. They lost Tyler Toffoli, Troy Stecher and Tanev to free agency. They had some cap issues, and had their own restricted free agents to take care of. They’re an exciting young team, and their playoff experience should bode well. Oilers: The Oilers got some big names signed to reasonable contracts, but there’s an “if” beside each one. If Barrie bounces back, if Kyle Turris can be a decent third-liner, if Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi break through, if they can make some saves. We know what Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can do. But there are too many ifs with the supporting cast to pencil Edmonton into a playoff spot right now. Canadiens: Montreal made bold moves to get forward Josh Anderson and Toffoli, though Anderson cost them Max Domi in a trade. The Canadiens had an exciting postseason led by young stars Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but they may be hoping for too much too soon from their young players over the long haul of a season. But with Shea Weber leading a strong blue line and Carey Price in net, if they make the playoffs, they can make some noise. Jets: They may be the Rodney Dangerfield of Canadian hockey teams, rarely getting any respect. They were everyone’s darling two years ago, but they lost three key players in the first game of the qualifying round (Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine and Mason Appleton) and now few have confidence in them. Laine seems unhappy. They picked up a good defenceman in Dylan DeMelo at the trade deadline, got Paul Stastny back from Vegas, and have a Vezina goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. But, I’m telling ya, no respect. No respect at all.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
Senators: They’re coming, just not yet. They’ve stockpiled really good young players, adding draft picks like Tim Stuetzle (third overall) and Jake Sanderson (fifth) in the draft this year. But the best that can be said of their freeagent additions (Alexander Galchenyuk, Matt Murray) is that other teams used to value those players highly. Evgeny Dadonov will score some. But Bobby Ryan is gone, as is Anthony Duclair. This is Brady Tkachuk’s team. One year, it will make the leap. And, hey, a fast start in a short season, and they could cause problems.