The winners and losers in the Supreme Court pipeline ruling

B.C. still has recourse, Alberta claims victory, Ottawa’s agenda holds

VANCOUVER— On the surface of things, Canada’s top court declared clear winners Thursday in a battle over one of the country’s most controversial energy projects.

Those victors appeared to be the federal government and the Alberta government, as the Supreme Court of Canada ruled B.C. does not have the jurisdiction to restrict the flow of oil through any pipeline in the province.

But if Thursday’s legal winners were clear, in the world of pipeline politics, observers say, the jury may remain out.

The project — which still faces other legal challenges — would triple the existing capacity of the line to 890,000 barrels of day of diluted bitumen. It is expected to result in a sevenfold increase in tanker traffic through the Burrard Inlet to the Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby, B.C.

Here’s what observers say the fight has meant, speaking strictly politically, for each leader: John Horgan, Jason Kenney and Justin Trudeau.

B.C. Premier John Horgan

For Horgan, there’s no question that the Supreme Court decision is a legal loss — but the fight might prove to be a political draw. Hamish Telford, a University of the Fraser Valley political science professor, recalled the B.C. premier’s 2017 election promise that an NDP government would do everything — in its power — to quash the project. The pipeline fight is not over, but Horgan can now let others, such as the Indigenous groups that argue they were not consulted adequately, continue the legal fight against the pipeline in court. The Federal Court of Appeal heard that case in December and has yet to make a ruling.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney

Kenney’s United Conservative government in Alberta was swift to claim victory in the wake of the Supreme Court decision. Thursday’s decision brings Alberta one step closer to bringing greater amounts of its oil to the B.C. coast. The Alberta government’s reactions to the decision fall into the realm of “political theatre,” Telford said — galvanizing existing support rather than creating new support. While divisive across the country, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has bipartisan support in Alberta, Telford said, which means few voters are about to be swayed on the issue.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

Trudeau’s Liberals lost all the seats they previously held in Alberta in the 2019 federal election, despite the government having bought the project in order to push it through. And the Liberals’ support for Trans Mountain and the resulting damage to Trudeau’s image on environmental issues has been cited in the party’s loss of seats in British Columbia. But Thursday’s decision confirms provinces can do little to prevent federally mandated energy projects from being built. That said, the decision was a win for the government’s agenda.