Parties must remember Ontarians are Red Tories
Ontario is at heart a Red Tory province. Federal politicians looking for votes here would be wise to remember that.
Analysts often divide voters into two camps: progressive or conservative. That is a useful distinction as far as it goes. But it doesn’t capture Ontario’s political culture which, typically, is an amalgam of both.
In general, Ontarians are wary of abrupt change. They tend to value competent management over ideology. They usually see balance as a virtue. This is the Tory side of Red Tory-ism. But voters in Canada’s largest province are also willing to use the state to achieve social goals. Since the early 20th century, they have backed public power in the form of Ontario Hydro (indeed, they eventually punished former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals for privatizing part of that utility).
In 1969, pressure from voters ultimately forced a recalcitrant Ontario government to sign onto Canada’s national, public medicare program. That is the Red side. During the 2015 federal election campaign, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals successfully wooed both sides.
They offered up a platform heavy on public works spending and light on deficit control that appealed to Ontario’s Red instincts.
At the same time, they promised to bring Canadian politics, which to many Ontarians had become radically meanspirited during the Stephen Harper era, back into civilized balance. That promise was meant to appeal to every Ontarian’s inner Tory.
This time around, Trudeau’s Liberals are again emphasizing their Red credentials. On Thursday, they promised to beef up subsidies for first-time home buyers in Canada’s hot housing markets, including Toronto.
They have announced that they have no interest in balanced budgets and are signalling that they will promise a comprehensive pharmacare scheme.
With one important exception, they have made few overtures to the Tory side of the typical Ontario Red Tory. That exception is the Liberal climatechange strategy, which emphasizes the classic, if ultimately unsatisfying, Tory virtue of balance — in this case, between the economy and the environment.
Other than that, the Liberals are relying on their standard hidden-agenda strategy, suggesting that a Conservative government under Andrew Scheer would cause chaos by reopening the abortion debate and slashing social programs.
Conversely, Scheer’s Conservatives have focused almost completely on the Tory side of Red Toryism. They accuse the Liberals of poor financial management. They accuse them of incompetence in foreign affairs, particularly with regard to China.
Scheer accuses Trudeau personally of malfeasance in the SNC-Lavalin affair.
Here, he runs the danger of going too far. Slagging Trudeau personally goes over well with the committed Conservative base. But an undecided Ontario Red Tory might find Scheer’s harsh language disturbingly reminiscent of the take-no-prisoners approach to politics associated with Harper.
As for the Red side of Red Toryism, Scheer offers virtually nothing. His is an ideologically purer form of conservatism that leaves no room for an activist state. Even loans and grants to struggling businesses are beyond the pale. Scheer dismisses them as corporate welfare.
In Scheer’s world view, governments should limit their economic activities to cutting taxes and reducing regulations.
The polls suggest that, currently, the Liberals enjoy a small lead over the Conservatives in Ontario. That could easily change before the Oct. 21 vote. How it changes will depend largely on which party is better able to tap into Ontario’s crucial Red Tory mindset.