Questionable credentials cast cloud over Dunedin pitch

Jays’ expert behind push for spring upgrade cash wasn’t economist after all

The sports economics expert the Blue Jays enlisted to bolster their case for public funding of the spring training complex renovation is facing questions about his qualifications and the quality of his work.

A report published Monday by WTSP TV in Tampa, revealed that Dr. Mark Bonn, head of Bonn Marketing, Inc., is not an economist by trade. Instead, his background is in resource development. The report also cites a series of sports economists who doubt the accuracy of economic impact studies Bonn has conducted for various teams.

Bonn is a professor at Florida State University’s Dedman School of Hospitality, and also runs a marketing firm. He maintains his work is solid and that he has always been honest about his academic bona fides.

“I told (the reporter) I’m not an economist, and I never said I was,” Bonn said in a phone interview Monday. “(The reporter) can go jump in a lake, as far as I’m concerned.”

Last year, Bonn authored the economic impact study that anchors the proposal — made jointly by the Jays and the city of Dunedin — for $65 million in taxpayer money to upgrade the Jays’ stadium and training facilities in Dunedin.

While the study suggests that spring training generates more than $70 million in economic activity each year in Dunedin, economists interviewed in the WTSP report say those numbers are inflated.

Bonn, however, says he worked with a team of sports economists to arrive at his final figures, and that they made sure not to include any misleading stats.

“I work with people who specialize in sports economics,” Bonn said. “My (projections) are conservative. We take numbers that are outliers out of our data.”

Next Tuesday, Pinellas county council will meet to decide whether to contribute $46 million to the project.

The Jays paid Bonn a reported $23,000 to conduct the study.

When reached by email, Jays president Mark Shapiro said the club wouldn’t comment on the reports until after the April 25 county council meeting.

But according to the WTSP report, the club expressed doubt about the accuracy of Bonn’s economic impact stats in December, and asked him to submit more realistic numbers.

Bonn, according to the report, warned the club to stick with his stats lest they harm their chances of securing government funding.

“I do not recommend going down this path,” he wrote. “It generates only a negative outcome and provides a good argument to defeat your proposal.”

Bonn says that passage was pulled from a series of several hundred emails sent over several months, and WTSP quoted the exchange out of context. He says the figures in question were part of a draft report that was never meant to be published.

“We go through hundreds of pages of drafts,” Bonn said. “You don’t hold hold somebody to anything (written in) a draft.”

It’s not clear which statistics will be presented to Pinellas county council next week, but Bonn’s calculations drew scrutiny when presented at a public meeting in Dunedin last September.

Where Bonn’s study found spring training generates $21.4 million in direct spending each year, critics point out that his calculations assume each ticket sold is bought by a unique visitor to Dunedin. That tactic, critics said, ignores local attendees and people who attend multiple games, counting them each as separate, out-of-town, customers and inflating their projected spending.

Bonn also worked on the Yankees’ successful bid to secure $27 million in public funding to upgrade their spring training stadium in Tampa. His economic impact study said Yankees spring training games generate $162 million in annual economic impact. But that projection, critics pointed out, means $950 in economic activity from each ticket sold.