Shell-shocked Britain reels in aftermath of toxic vote
Brexit has hit the British political landscape like a hurricane. And it is by no means certain who, or what, will be left standing when the dust settles over a country divided between shock and elation.
While pro-Brexit Conservative leadership candidate Boris Johnson tried to reassure millions of young “remain” voters that leaving the European Union did not involve “pulling up the drawbridge or any kind of isolationism,” by late Saturday at least 2.7 million people had signed an online petition to Parliament calling for a second referendum.
It asked the government to implement a rule that a vote of less than 60 per cent to quit the EU, or a turnout of less than 75 per cent, would force another referendum.
The petition could trigger a debate among lawmakers.
Any petition exceeding 100,000 signatures is eligible for discussion; Parliament’s Petitions Committee makes the final decision on whether to hold one, though such a debate never leads to a vote.
In January, lawmakers debated whether to ban Donald Trump from the U.K. because of his comments about preventing Muslims from entering the U.S. It didn’t work: Trump visited Scotland Friday.
The petition has attracted the greatest level of support ever on the parliamentary website, exceeding the 587,000 signatures on the Trump motion.
It’s just one aspect of the backlash to the Brexit that has reverberated through Britain, where leaving was backed by 51.9 per cent of voters with a 72.2 per cent turnout. Meanwhile, European officials have said that the deal worked out with retiring Prime Minister David Cameron to keep Britain in the EU is dead.
The regionally split Brexit vote also threatens the U.K.’s geographical unity. Scotland’s government is preparing for a new referendum on independence, and Northern Ireland’s Catholic Sinn Fein party is calling for avote on uniting with the Republic of Ireland, which is a member of the EU. Protestant politicians would likely oppose it. Throughout Britain, ethnic wounds have been torn open by the bitter campaign leading up to the vote.
“I’ve spent the day reassuring my staff,” said Mark Lattimer, director of the Minority Rights Group International in London. “What has shocked minority representatives in the last few weeks is how low the tone of the debate has grown. They didn’t expect the extent of the hurtful, xenophobic sentiments.”
Racism and anti-immigrant rhetoric were part of a deeply divisive debate, in which the “leave” camp whipped up nationalist emotions and the “remain” camp warned of economic collapse if the ties to Europe came undone.
“This was a referendum about immigration which was disguised as a referendum about the European Union,” wrote Times columnist Philip Collins, a former speech writer for prime minister Tony Blair.
But with the resignation of Cameron, who lost the bet of the century by asking the public to vote on a complex and multi-dimensional issue that few fully understood, the future of British politics is hazy. When Cameron steps down in October, his replacement is likely to be the flamboyant, polarizing Johnson, a former London mayor likened to an intellectual Donald Trump.
It was to appease the anti-European and anti-immigration wing of the divided Tory party that Cameron called the referendum, unexpectedly handing Johnson a victory as the grinning public face of Brexit.
“I think it’s likely Johnson will be the leader,” says political science professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University. “There’s no obvious ‘Stop Boris’ candidate around whom the party could unite.’”
After the vote, Johnson was reportedly confident of his leadership bid and is planning to team up with Justice Minister Michael Gove as his chancellor. Gove, a less-strident leaver, is also under consideration for the leadership, but denies that he wants the job.
The leadership race could begin as early as next week.
Candidates must be MPs and once the list of nominees is finalized, a series of ballots will eliminate all but two hopefuls. The party membership has the final vote.
Among the main contenders is Theresa May, a long-serving home secretary mooted as a unifier, but hampered by lukewarm support for the remain camp.
Andrea Leadsom, a former junior minister, is also suggested as the “Margaret Thatcher” redux who comes up from behind in the home stretch.
But the leadership is no prize in a country heading for a battering in the months ahead.
The pound dropped dramatically after the referendum, with a 20-percent plunge possible. The spectre of recession hangs over any Tory leader.
That could benefit either the far right of the small U.K. Independence Party’s Nigel Farage — the most vocally xenophobic spokesman of Brexit — or the weak Labour Party of Jeremy Corbyn.
“He is loved by lots of the membership, but viewed with disdain by MPs and not seen as credible by swing voters,” Scully said.
Whoever takes on the leadership role will have a difficult task convincing the older, poorer and less educated people who feel left behind by an economy that favours the fast-moving, mobile, Eurocentric young that they have benefited from leaving the EU.
If a sliding economy threatens cuts to social programs, they may be the collateral damage of the Brexit they supported.
Their anger could turn against the politicians of the major established parties — to something more ominous.
“The deeper fear among Tory remainers now isn’t just of a recession,” writes Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff.
“It’s about the rise of something new in British politics, unleashed when politicians with scant respect for truth meet desperate voters; and for the backlash to come, when it sinks in that Brexit hasn’t ended immigration overnight or magically given depressed communities their futures back.”
The Conservatives will now have until 2020 to rule a Britannia increasingly isolated from Europe and divided against itself.