Count on it: Long-form census will be back

Trudeau expected to move quickly to restore mandatory questionnaire axed by Tories in 2010

OTTAWA— Restoring the long-form census will be among the first acts of the new Liberal government, which takes office Wednesday.

Prime minister-designate Justin Trudeau and his cabinet are expected to move quickly on the formal decision to reinstate the mandatory questionnaire that was axed by the Conservatives in 2010, the Star has learned.

The move, seen as vital by those who rely on the census data, is also an important symbolic one for the Liberals, demonstrating a commitment to sciencebased policy while taking the first steps of undoing the legacy of almost a decade of Conservative rule.

“It will be fairly easy because it doesn’t take legislation. All it requires is cabinet saying so,” said Ivan Fellegi, who served as Canada’s chief statistician for 23 years and retired in 2008. “It’s definitely an excellent step.”

Fellegi was among the many who raised concerns about the Tory move in 2010 — done with no consultation — to replace the mandatory long-form census with a voluntary household survey for the 2011 census. The eight-question mandatory short form was distributed as well.

“The move to the voluntary census had a fairly substantial impact, particularly for small towns.” DOUG NORRIS ENVIRONICS ANALYTICS

The 61-question long-form census, sent to one in five households, included questions on language, aboriginal heritage, ethnicity, education, employment and commuting habits and was meant to provide greater insight into the country and its citizens.

The responses to those questions — and the trends revealed from one census to the next — helped public officials plan infrastructure and urban services and give private businesses insight into their customer base. The head of Statistics Canada, Munir Sheikh, quit in protest over the decision, warning that a voluntary survey would not work.

That warning was borne out, with many experts viewing the data from the National Household Survey with suspicion precisely because it was voluntary. Indeed, because of the questionable nature of some results, Statistics Canada was unable to publish detailed census data for some smaller communities.

“The move to the voluntary census had a fairly substantial impact, particularly for small towns and cities and neighbourhoods . . . that’s where the impact was really felt,” said Doug Norris, the chief demographer at Environics Analytics.

But the missing data was equally felt by the business community, Norris said. “Many companies depend on the census data as a bit of a building block for many other types of information they develop to make their decisions,” he said.

Statistics Canada declined to comment on Monday. A spokesperson for the Liberals did not respond to a request for comment.

However, the Liberal platform outlined a commitment to “immediately restore” the mandatory long-form census “to give communities the information they need to best serve Canadians.

“Without accurate and reliable data, Canada’s communities cannot plan ahead,” stated the Liberal platform, which also committed to make Statistics Canada “fully independent.’

According to a Liberal source, the new government intends to act on its long-form census pledge soon after taking office Wednesday.

With a census planned for next year, the new government will have to move quickly to announce their plans for the long-form census, even though Statistics Canada bureaucrats likely planned for the possibility of a Liberal win, Norris said.

“My guess is that they have known this was part of the platform and have tried their best and have kept the window open,” said Norris, who worked at Statistics Canada for nearly 30 years. “But that decision, I would guess, has to be made within the next week or two. Hopefully it’s one of the first things the government announces,” he said.