English Canada still the key for NDP: pollster
Forum pollster Lorne Bozinoff on what’s behind the results his firm’s latest public opinion findings, which show the NDP is still leading the pack.
Star: Is it too early to say that the NDP has consolidated what they picked up in 2011?
Bozinoff: I think the NDPare consolidating what they did four years ago, because, on top of that, Mulcair’s done a great job and he has fabulous approval ratings. Also, it looks like the Bloc Quebecois is not going anywhere in Quebec, and if the NDP can not have to worry about Quebec, if they can really focus on English Canada, they have a really good chance in this election.
What are the risks for the NDP of taking an early lead?
This is kind of strange, but the NDP have been running a kind of frontrunner’s campaign. It’s one they’re probably not used to running but they’ve been doing a pretty good job of it for the past three weeks. They’ve kept their lead in our poll week after week. They’ve been close to a majority. We don’t think they have a majority but they’re in striking distance of a majority. But they kind of have three fronts to worry about. As you know they’ve got to worry about the Bloc in Quebec. They have to worry about the Liberals in the rest of the country and they have to worry about the Greens because the Greens could nibble away at their support on the environmental front.
Are there issues that are driving these numbers?
First of all, what’s startling is what’s not an issue. The whole Duffy trial that’s going on every day during this poll with all its gory details, it had no impact. The Tory numbers are unchanged and maybe we could say that this is their base. If you look at the poll there’s a question about how solid is their support and the Tory support is rock solid. It’s small but a solid base.
There are strong numbers showing that one-third of people expect the NDP to win. Tell me about the significance of that.
That’s significant when we get down to the strategic voting stage because . . . when we get to the last week of the campaign, if the NDP can foster the idea among Liberals that it’s hopeless for Liberals and if you don’t vote NDP Harper’s coming back then it would be a safe bet that a lot of those people would want to vote NDP.