Horwath should back the budget, poll finds

48 per cent don’t want snap election called over Ndp-friendly plan

About half of Ontarians want the NDP to support the minority Liberals’ budget, which would avert a snap June election, a new poll suggests.

In the first public opinion survey since Finance Minister Charles Sousa introduced his party’s spending plan on Thursday crafted to appease the New Democrats, 48 per cent said the NDP should back the Liberals, 36 per cent said they shouldn’t, and 16 per cent had no opinion.

“The NDP can’t very well defeat their own budget,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said Sunday, referring to an NDP-flavoured Liberal fiscal blueprint that promises a 15-percent cut to auto insurance rates while boosting money for home care services and youth employment.

“It puts them in a difficult situation,” said Bozinoff.

The pollster noted that 44 per cent approve of the budget, while 39 per cent oppose it and 17 per cent have no opinion.

At the same time 53 per cent don’t want an election — which would come 20 months after the last campaign and cost $92 million — compared to 41 per cent who want one with 4 per cent unsure.

The Forum poll also found Premier Kathleen Wynne’s governing party remains in a first-place tie with Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and ahead of Andrea Horwath’s NDP.

Echoing last week’s findings, the Liberals and Tories each have 35 per cent support while the New Democrats are at 25 per cent and the Greens, led by Mike Schreiner, are at 4 per cent.

On April 28, the two front-running parties were at 36 per cent to the NDP’s 24 per cent and the Greens’ 4 per cent.

Forum’s interactive voice-response phone poll of 869 people, conducted Friday, is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The positive overall results for the Liberals come even though there is unhappiness among voters over the $585-million cancellation of gasfired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga before the 2011election in order to save five Grit seats.

Indeed, 61per cent believe the Liberals misled the public about the tab — compared to 24 per cent who don’t — and 46 per cent feel the government is “corrupt” while 39 per cent do not.

Although fallout over gas plants has dominated proceedings at Queen’s Park, Bozinoff said the issue does not seem to have much traction among voters.

“For some reason they’re not caring about it. They’re now just some big numbers to people,” he said. “This could still bite the Liberals, but it’s not biting them right now.”

The imbroglio has not damaged Wynne’s personal popularity despite her testy appearance last week before the legislative committee probing the affair. “I am very regretful that we are in this situation,” she said in an interview with Global’s Focus Ontario broadcast Sunday.

“It shouldn’t have happened,” she told host Leslie Roberts. While Horwath is still best liked of the major party leaders — as she has been for many months — the premier fares quite well. The New Democrat has 49 per cent approval with 32 per cent disapproval and 18 per cent unsure. Wynne has a 42 per cent approval rating to 40 per cent disapproval with 18 per cent uncertain. Hudak trailed with a 27 per cent approval, 56 per cent disapproval, and 17 per cent undecided. There are some ominous signs for the Liberals in the poll. Sousa’s proposal to toll high-occupancy vehicle lanes met with the disapproval of 44 per cent of respondents compared to 38 per cent who approved with18 per cent holding no opinion. As well, 45 per cent believe auto insurance rates will stay about the same, 32 per cent thinking they will and 13 per cent feeling premiums will actually go up, and 7 per cent not having an opinion and 3 per cent uninsured. Interestingly if Ontario is plunged into an election, 39 per cent would blame the Liberals, 29 per cent would fault the Tories, 15 per cent the NDP, 11 per cent would hold all three responsible, 2 per cent said “none of them,” and 5 per cent didn’t know. Bozinoff said that response suggested some confusion among voters about “the dynamics at play in a minority government.”

While transposing the poll results into seat projections is tricky, the pollster estimates if an election were held now, the Liberals, because of voting concentration, would win a majority of 59 seats in the 107-member legislative assembly while the Tories would take 36 and the NDP 12.

Currently, the Grits, including Speaker Dave Levac, have 51 seats, the Tories hold 36, the NDP 18, and there are two vacancies.