Premier has defied odds before
Looking into the eyes of his most loyal Liberal supporters, Dalton McGuinty predicted their “idealism” would win over the “hearts and minds” of Ontarians. Including public servants. “It’s back to school,” he mused. “And we know you can’t have great schools without great teachers.”
There wasn’t a dissenting voice in the crowd as the premier spoke on a gorgeous September day, with teachers among his strongest admirers.
That was a year ago — Sept. 5 to be precise — as McGuinty unveiled his party’s 2011 campaign platform to a roomful of diehard partisans. He offered a hint of hard times ahead, but it would have been easy to miss the signals amid the smiles and sunny optimism:
“We will balance our budget by delivering a smaller, more efficient government over time,” the premier noted at the time, almost in passing.
That was then. Now, McGuinty’s pleasant September memories circa 2011 have transmogrified into an unpleasant September surprise for the province’s schoolteachers — and the entire public service.
This weekend in Ottawa, reunited with the party faithful for a pro forma leadership review (nearly one year after the Oct. 6 election), the premier faced a tougher crowd in harder times. They were well aware that in the period since, McGuinty won his third general election but lost his majority. Again this month, a majority eluded him when he lost a critical byelection. Happily for the premier, a solid majority of party delegates (85.8 per cent) backed him in a mandatory leadership review — even as public opinion polls show he has the approval of less than a third of all Ontarians. This time, teachers were jeering, not cheering, on the sidelines of the conference. Undaunted, McGuinty once again celebrated their profession: “You know, Terri takes great pride in her responsibilities as a teacher,” he began, pointedly invoking the work of his wife. In fact, she works in the Catholic system whose union reached a deal with the Liberal government while others walked away from the table — prompting McGuinty to bring in an anti-strike law this month. Sticking to his implausibly upbeat script, McGuinty reflected on “working with the best teachers anywhere — Ontario teachers.” The applause line rings hollow. Despite the premier’s belated efforts to make peace with the teachers — after playing hardball during the summer break — he won’t win them back. “You know, many of our public servants support our plan,” McGuinty asserted unpersuasively. “Our public servants understand.” It’s fair to say they neither understand nor accept the government’s plan, but that is beside the point. For Liberals, the bigger question is whether they can once again pull off a political miracle as they did a year ago. McGuinty’s mission this weekend was to reassure his own base that he’s on the right path for the province and the party. Estranged from teachers, on a collision course with other public sector unions, he is talking over the heads of his erstwhile labour allies to persuade the broader public: “Eliminating the deficit and balancing the books is a lot more than an accounting exercise,” the premier intoned: More than half of all government spending goes to wages. To balance last year’s $13billion deficit by 2017-18 the government can either freeze salaries or fire public servants and sacrifice services.
Without missing a beat, McGuinty hearkened back to another politically bleak time when the government also took aggressive action and found itself on the defensive: Imposing the HST at first alienated voters, but ultimately won their grudging acceptance.
It’s worth remembering that another long-serving premier — B.C.’s Gordon Campbell — irretrievably lost public support on the same issue and had to bow out of politics. McGuinty, by contrast, defied the HST odds a year ago and survived to tell Liberal delegates about it this weekend.
A year from now, will he be reincarnated yet again for the party faithful, celebrating his vindication over a public sector wage freeze that cost the Liberals the support of their erstwhile union allies? The record suggests it’s never wise to underestimate McGuinty’s survival instincts — for as long as he chooses to stick around. Martin Regg Cohn’s provincial affairs column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. mcohn@thestar.ca, twitter.com/reggcohn.