Rain and wind, for some, later this weekend
A forecast is a prediction based on current and past data, and when it comes to weather, those predictions have changed a lot this week.
Numerical weather models, which forecasters use to help produce weather forecasts, have had a tough time handling how the current atmosphere will change with time. We can blame that in part on more atmospheric blocking developing to our north and east this weekend into next week, which models often don’t handle well.
The east and northeast flow off the Atlantic has once again cooled our temperatures and is serving up fog patches, some drizzle, and chances for showers. However, much like last week, locations farther west or in offshore flow could see some sunshine.
A chance of showers will linger to start the weekend — low for most, with a general mix of sun and cloud otherwise forecast on Saturday. The next system I’m watching is low-pressure that will organize off Cape Hatteras on Saturday and track to the north.
If high-pressure off Newfoundland moves east as forecast, which most guidance indicates, the low will develop periods of rain and showers to the eastern half of Nova Scotia, much of Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland on Sunday.
Higher elevations in western Newfoundland to southeast Labrador could see mixed precipitation.
Central and eastern Newfoundland should see the most rain with 15 to 30 mm forecast, up to 40-plus mm possible on parts of the southeast coast. Amounts are more uncertain for eastern Nova Scotia and P.E.I. — if the low remains on track, I would expect 10 to 20-plus mm, but a slight nudge east and amounts will be little to none.
Unless the track changes, western portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick shouldn’t see much rain from the low.
The entire region should expect some gusty winds — first from the north and northeast but shifting directions as the low passes.
Peak wind gusts look set to range from 30 to 60 km/h, with some gusts to 70-plus km/h not ruled out over eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Be sure to keep tabs on the forecast this weekend.