Al Qaeda will pursue attacks undeterred by loss: experts
DUBAI/BAGHDAD — The U.S. Hellfire missiles that killed Ayman al-zawahiri dealt al Qaeda a powerful symbolic blow, but its farflung branches are tactically independent and will not be deterred from plotting more attacks on local and Western targets, experts say.
On his watch, which began with the 2011 death of Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda’s original driving force, the group often lost ground to Islamic State in a contest for relevance, especially among young jihadis lured by the newer group’s self-proclaimed caliphate.
Handicapped by a reputation for inflexibility and small-mindedness and not widely popular, Zawahiri could not match bin Laden’s flair for reaching out from al Qaeda’s hideouts in south Asia to forge bonds with likeminded groups around the globe.
But as a vastly experienced figurehead who spoke regularly online to sympathisers, Zawahiri was important in signalling the group’s continuing global ambitions, the experts say.
“Zawahiri’s presence meant the continuation of an actual organisation, and he was very symbolic,” said H.A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“But the major question will be, who can fill that void for the group, especially in a world where groups like the Taliban are more powerful, to say nothing of ISIS (Islamic State)?”
Few potential replacements can match Zawahiri’s decades-long record as a jihadi. He used his prestige as a veteran militant to help rebuild al Qaeda in the face of a U.S. onslaught following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
But analysts say the identity of the top man has become less relevant, because tactically independent al Qaeda franchises run the day to day operations in their countries.
FORMER EGYPTIAN SPECIAL FORCES OFFICER
The main contender, experts say, is Saif al-adel. The mysterious former Egyptian special forces officer was widely regarded as al Qaeda’s number 3 and one of its military chiefs.
His jihadist resume dates back to 1981, when he along with Zawahiri was suspected of involvement in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat after he signed a peace treaty with Israel.
Adel helped to plan the bomb attacks against the American embassies in Nairobi and Dar as Salaam in 1998 and set up training camps for the organisation in Sudan, Pakistan and Afghanistan in the 1990s.
Also in the running is Yezid Mebarek, known as Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-anabi, who succeeded as emir of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in 2020 when a French raid killed his predecessor.
Moroccan-born national Abd al-rahman al-maghrebi is another contender, some experts say.
He studied software programming in Germany before moving to Afghanistan where he was selected to manage al Qaeda’s main media wing, said the FBI, which wants him for questioning in connection with his al-qaeda membership.
The son-in-law of Zawahiri, he is a senior Al Qaeda leader.
Al Qaeda has faced setbacks since it carried out the 9/11 attacks, including U.S. military pressure and competition from Islamic State, which ruled over vast areas in Iraq and Syria.
But jihadi watchers say al Qaeda’s structure is unlikely to change dramatically after Zawahiri’s death.
It consists of a Shura Council of key veterans and leaders of franchises, and then there is an executive committee that resolves internal issues, said Jerome Drevon, Senior analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict at the International Crisis Group.