FIVE KEYS to the game
1 What this game means
To borrow a phrase from Toronto Sun beat writer Ryan Wolstat, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over … but, it’s over.” Neither the Whitecaps nor the Reds control their playoff destiny, even if they were to win out their remaining schedule. Vancouver’s post-season chances hover around 4% (four games left, six points out), while Toronto’s sits at 1.2% (four games left, seven points out). Carl Robinson paid the price for his team’s results two weeks ago, and there are plenty of rumblings that Toronto’s Greg Vanney, who coaches the highest-payrolled team in MLS, might be next to get the axe.
2 Where are the goals?
In their six-game unbeaten streak, the Whitecaps put up 15 goals. In the three-game skid that’s followed it, they’ve scored twice — both Kei Kamara headers — as he boosted his league goal total to 13, the secondmost in his career. The Caps’ next three top scorers, Yordy Reyna (5), Cristian Techera (8) and Alphonso Davies (6), each have just two goals in their past 10 appearances. And No. 5 on the list, Brek Shea (3) hasn’t scored since April 7.
3 Keeping their cool
Going back to the scene of the crime — the demoralizing 5-2 loss to TFC at BMO Field in the second leg of the Canadian Championship — will no doubt raise the spectres of frustration of a season that will end without any silverware, or even a playoff berth. While their 50 cautions is mid-pack, no other team can match the Caps’ seven red cards on the season, nor the eight penalty-kick goals against. Techera misses this game on yellow card accumulation, just two weeks after Reyna did the same.
4 Star power
Caps fans won’t forget Jozy Altidore’s hat trick in their fateful previous meeting, nor Sebastian Giovinco’s regular appearances in the Goal of the Week competition. But make no mistake, it’s Michael Bradley who powers the Reds offence. The central midfielder controlled the pitch in last week’s 4-1 win over New England, recording 9% possession by himself (the team had 59 in total) and a game-high 74 passes.
5 ’X’ marks the spot
Goals against have conceded both the Caps and Reds this year. Looking at their xGA (expected number of goals against based on where and how a shot was taken), you can see why. Toronto’s xGA is 47.8, Vancouver’s 47.3, but they have given up 58 and 56 xGA qualified goals against each, indicating a breakdown in both goalkeeping and defence.