Promises, promises.

I have always tried and hopefully, succeeded in emulating my father in at least one regard of my life. I have never promised anything in thought, deed or action that I knew I could not 100 per cent deliver. I hope I have passed this ethos on to my children too. It is not an easy discipline to follow.

Politicians are, well, politicians but for myself I hold them to the same flame. President Trump during his election campaign made much, probably too much, of what he would do during his first 100 days in office. It was a lot. I thought at the time that the rhetoric would be tough to deliver but maybe, with Republican majorities in both houses, it might work.

Well 100 days plus on and I reckon that Trump might be privately regretting having promised so much. I think bill wise it’s 0 for 10. Talking the talk is a lot easier than walking the walk methinks. Personally, I can’t think why anyone would want the job of U.S. President. Perhaps the gentleman in the oval office may be thinking the same thing.

The price of oil is sinking again. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading just north of U.S.$45 a barrel. Brent Crude, the benchmark that is usually higher and thus used to, some may think, gouge us at the gas pump is trading just south of U.S.$48 a barrel. There is still a glut and although a good deal of the storage industry is opaque it looks like markets have run out of patience for drawdowns, which typically wouldn’t occur until the end of May when refineries come out of maintenance mode. Oil could well go lower inflicting more pain on oil companies that are still paying dividends and have cut elsewhere to do it, including a lot of jobs. I’m not surprised. Supply and demand have not leveled out and there is too much supply.

The French Presidential election is or was by the time you read this on Sunday, May 7. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen go head to head. I expect Macron to win but maybe the margin won’t be as great as the polls suggest. A lot of people seem to be going for none of the above. Markets should settle but France like a lot of other countries will remain bitterly divided and seething under the surface. How much Macron will be able to do will depend on French parliamentary elections in June. With a brand-new party, it’s highly possible that he might be talking a good game but be unable to deliver it. We’ll see. Barack Obama has publicly backed Macron. In the UK, this did not go down well when Obama backed remain in the Brexit vote. I didn’t think it was appropriate for Obama to be partisan then and I don’t think it’s appropriate now and he may drive more voters to the Le Pen camp.

UK parliamentary elections are in June and Brexit talk will likely get underway in earnest after the German elections in September. The sky has not fallen on the

UK after the vote to leave the EU, quite the contrary it seems. I would like to think that both sides will sit down and negotiate a fair deal. Sadly, I don’t think this will happen. Details of a dinner between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker were leaked to the German Press causing May to publicly accuse the EU of attempting to influence the UK election. If this is how things progress then this process will not end well with both sides being damaged more than is necessary. Neither side understands the other I think and If EU Greek like tactics are deployed then the EU will, I think, see just how, “Bloody Difficult”, PM May can be. Fearmongering and bully tactics will not wash with a great many of the UK people either.

Now for a poser. I wonder why U.S. President Trump is not so tough on Japan and China. It seems quite the reverse. Well, might it be that Japan, despite dumping bonds, is the number one holder of U.S. debt with China, also dumping bonds, I believe, second. I also read that Russia is buying U.S. debt. Read into that what you will.