From exile to the presidency
Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, concluded his second five-year term on Tuesday with a national election in which his chosen successors won a convincing victory.
“Jokowi,” as everybody calls him, still enjoys 70 per cent public approval, and he has every right to be proud of his past.
The national economy has grown 43 per cent under his rule, and democracy has become normal in a country where dictatorship was once the norm. People are living better, the coups and genocides are long past and Indonesia is growing into its status as a major player internationally. But something weird has just happened. Prabowo Subianto has been elected president.
Former general Prabowo Subianto is a living symbol of the bad old days. His father came from a wealthy family and served as a cabinet minister under both Indonesia’s founding dictator, Sukarno, and the brutal general who ruled for 30 years after him, Suharto. Prabowo married Suharto’s daughter in 1983, and served as a special forces commander fighting resistance fighters in Indonesianoccupied East Timor and separatists in West Papua (New Guinea). In both conflicts, he was accused of human rights abuses.
The accusations that just won’t go away, however, concern the kidnapping, torture and murder of pro-democracy protesters during the non-violent campaign to oust Suharto in 1998. Prabowo was also accused of inciting the anti-Chinese pogroms that swept Jakarta in the last days of Suharto’s rule in 1998.
But he returned from exile in 2009 and founded a right-wing ultra-nationalist party. With limitless funds available from his billionaire brother, he ran for president in 2014 and 2019, but even with the backing of the other business tycoons, he was trounced by Jokowi both times.
In those days, Prabowo’s political style was somewhere between Juan Perón and Benito Mussolini, belligerently antiforeign and over-the-top dramatic: he sometimes arrived at rallies riding on a thoroughbred horse. But he’s getting better political advice these days, and prefers to play a benevolent grandfather dancing badly on TikTok.
That change of face wouldn’t have been enough to win him the presidency, however, without the help of Jokowi himself, who brought Prabowo in from the cold and made him defence minister in 2019.
Nepotism has always been a curse in Indonesian politics, and it turns out that Jokowi was not immune. Maybe he justified his actions by telling himself that otherwise somebody like Prabowo would ruin his legacy after he was gone (the constitution says two terms is the limit), but in any case, he made a secret deal with his erstwhile rival. Nobody is going to admit that publicly, but actions speak louder than words. Making Prabowo minister of defence was just the first step. The deal was that Prabowo would make Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his running mate as vice-president in the 2024 election in return for Jokowi’s support.
It worked: Indonesian voters were left with limited choices once the “good guy” and the “bad guy” made a deal. However, the vice-presidency may be worth no more than “a bucket of warm spit,” as former U.S. vice-president John Nance Garner once warned fellow Texan and prospective vicepresident Lyndon B. Johnson.
There’s a coalition of parties behind this deal, of course, but it’s hard to believe that Jokowi’s 36-year-old son, a political novice, will be a match for the ruthless Prabowo, a 72-year-old veteran of both the political wars and the real killing zones of the past.
The current deal is unlikely to work, and Jokowi’s ability to control the course of the new government (through his son Gibran) will be a lot less than he supposes.