Carbon emissions and the risk of policy failure

Can governments overcome entrenched habits by citizens to combat climate change?

Sitting in a fast-food restaurant watching a long line of idling vehicles waiting for service at the drive-thru can only make one wonder about the depth of our entrenched habits. What will it take to change them? This is perhaps a microcosm of the challenge being faced by Canada’s federal and provincial governments as they pursue their commitments made at the November 2015, Paris COP21 climate conference.

The carrot and stick approach in its recently released Climate Change Action Plan shows the Ontario government has many ideas, some valid, others questionable and one would hope they are supported by an indepth understanding of the hysteresis of consumer habit. Has the massive inertia of several generations raised in a cheap oil, easy credit and, latterly, a drive-thru culture been grossly underestimated?

Other provinces will face the same challenges whether or not the federal government significantly raises the bar on carbon pricing. One has only to look at countries where fossil-based fuels are several times the Canadian retail price to see that consumers still tend to place convenience above cost and will sacrifice other items in their household budgets or incur debt to preserve their spontaneous mobility and desire for immediate material gratification. It is because we all perceive value differently and many may only give lip service to climate-change strategies. The more-conscientious can only move the needle slightly, certainly less than that needed to achieve stated federal and provincial carbon targets.

Deeper in the foundations of the Canadian economy resides a second spectre of potential failure reported by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy in its 2016 Energy Efficiency Scorecard. Canada occupies the 10th spot in energy efficiency out of the twenty-three nations included in their study. We are also very much a laggard in the G7 group of industrialized democracies. It’s indicative of the extreme heavy lifting required to advance ourselves to the likes of Germany and Japan, both leaders in the global efficiency ranking.

But poking consumers with sticks, feeding them carrots while picking their pockets with new carbon taxes will be futile if both levels of government don’t, themselves, demonstrate extreme discipline in related policies. They have to write the rule book and, what’s more, abide by it. Spin and greenwashing cannot be used to conceal egregious rule violation or wilful blindness by government and industry while taxpayers are expected to make continuous and escalating contributions to the cause.

As Canada embarks on this important journey we may need to look long and hard for signs of progress for many years to come. It would seem that, despite government exhortation, most of our entrenched habits and their consequences for the environment are set to continue. Only when the financial pain reaches a certain threshold will there be a collective response and a search for alternatives. Who really knows when this will kickin?

But what alternatives will there be? The flexibility of the internal combustion engine will continue to challenge the limits of electric vehicles for another quarter century, at least. Many cities are expanding transit systems but are mostly in the catch-up mode and will have inadequate capacity and reach for the foreseeable future. Lack of government transportation policy allows those modes best able to externalize costs to the taxpayer and the environment to dominate. Low carbon intercity and intercommunity travel options in Canada are extremely limited or non-existent. One can only be aghast at the suggestion of ultra short-haul flights to connect Niagara and Waterloo regions with Toronto — a sure sign that Ontario is already heading in the wrong direction on emissions.

Car-dependent urban sprawl continues, largely unabated and densification efforts are often opposed by those espousing the demand for larger, single family homes. Today, Net-Zero house construction is only in its infancy.

So, overcoming the inertia of entrenched habits while building momentum on carbon reduction requires exemplary leadership and discipline from the top down. Without enforceable, comprehensive policies on primary emission sources “the market” will continue to dictate our progress. While this may be an easy choice for federal and provincial leadership, there’s scant evidence it will enable Canada to meet its COP21 commitments.

Taxpayers will seek concrete results from their increasing financial burdens and lifestyle constraints required to fully address climate-change. Governments must lead and, what’s more, deliver — or suffer the consequences.

The more-conscientious can only move the needle slightly, certainly less than that needed to achieve stated federal and provincial carbon targets.