Riding to watch: University-Rosedale
Why it matters
One of Toronto’s two new ridings, University-Rosedale is set up to be a showdown of two media personalities. Former journalist Chrystia Freeland won a key byelection in 2013 that was, at the time, framed as a test of newly minted Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s popularity. Her past as a Financial Times and Reuters editor — as well as her book Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else — were used to bolster the Liberals’ fiscal credentials under the young leader. But she faces a stiff race in the redistributed riding as she runs against Jennifer Hollett, a former TV personality. Hollett worked on Olivia Chow’s mayoral bid, and the new riding holds a lot of voters who cast their ballots for the New Democrat in Toronto’s election. “This could be her race to lose,” said Mark Towhey, a management consultant and political strategist with Ballacaine Strategy & Execution. He wonders how much an impact Freeland has had outside of her old constituency. He added, “Karim Jivraj, the Conservative candidate, seems unlikely to be much of a force in this race.” If the 2011 election results are applied to the new riding it would go orange, he said. Right now, it looks like the NDP is leading in the riding, though Freeland’s perceived star quality could give her a couple extra points, said Barry Kay, a Wilfrid Laurier University political science professor.
Key demographic:
The riding includes Rosedale, one of the most moneyed neighbourhoods in the country, as well as the University of Toronto. Voters clustered around the school in Toronto’s Annex, whether students or residents, skew heavily New Democrat, though Rosedale is considered an old bastion of Laurentian Liberalism. The median family income of $98,029 is much higher than the national mid-point of $76,600, according to StatsCan’s 2011 census. About 29 per cent identify as visible minorities.
Claim to fame:
This riding is involved in a merrygo-round of contests sprung from those key 2013 by-elections. Hollett ran unsuccessfully against Linda McQuaig for the NDP who ran and lost against Freeland who is now running against Hollett. All three women are now running for Parliament.
The darkest horse:
Jesse Waslowski is running for the Libertarians, citing his experience working with — brace for the irony — the National Capital Commission, a Crown Corporation. Nick Wright, the Green Party candidate, is actually the most seasoned campaigner on the ticket: he once ran his party’s Nova Scotia wing, made a federal bid for a seat in Halifax in 2006 and ran against Joe Cressy for the area’s city council seat in 2014.
Tim Hortons or Starbucks:
Sorry, coffee from a chain that isn’t artisanal, in-house roasted and served with a side of foam art? These voters like their coffee, just not mass produced.