New England's last Republican on shaky ground

Every week, glossy flyers from the Maine Democratic Party fill mailboxes across this state. Every week, they attack the record of Republican Sen. Susan Collins and correct the record of her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

For the undecided, the flyers thoughtfully offer advice. They explain bluntly why Mainers should defeat Collins, who has been in the U.S. Senate for almost 24 years. And, implicitly, why Maine is among four critical races in the country (along with Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina) that will decide whether Democrats control the Senate in November.

The Democrats make three big arguments for denying Collins a fifth term:

■ She is no longer a moderate, her bedrock appeal in this staunchly independent state. She has voted with Donald Trump 94 per cent of the time. In particular, she approved every one of his lower-court judicial nominees, and most prominently, supported Brett Kavanaugh for the U.S. Supreme Court.

■ She voted for Trump's tax cuts, the “massive giveaway to corporations” that will add US$1.9 trillion to the national debt. Some 83 per cent of its benefits go to the wealthiest one per cent.

■ She accepted US$1.5 million from insurance and pharmaceutical companies, and $6 million from corporate political action committees.

The argument against Collins is that she has changed since she was first elected in 1996. She puts special interests before the people. She is Trump's ally while posing as a skeptic. “It's easy to see,” say the Democrats, “Susan Collins just isn't who she used to be.”

In Maine, this resonates. It dislikes aggressive partisanship, which is why its other senator, the popular Angus King, sits as an Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). Maine has elected Independents to other offices.

Maine is the oldest, whitest state in the union. Beyond Portland (pop. 66,000), it has no big cities; its 1.3 million people live in small towns and villages along the jagged coast or in the wooded, mountainous interior. Maine sits alone, in brooding isolation, in the country's northeastern corner.

Senators Margaret Chase Smith, Ed Muskie, William Cohen, George Mitchell and Olympia Snowe were national figures from Maine. They were Republicans and Democrats, less partisans than centrists.

But the ideological middle ground has disappeared. Trump exploits this polarization relentlessly. And now Collins, 67, who broke with Republicans to oppose the repeal of Obamacare and support reproductive rights, is caught up in the new reality.

She is fighting for re-election in an increasingly progressive state; in a Senate divided 53-to-47, toxic in tone, with little room for compromise; and under a mercurial president who demands loyalty from his cult and excommunicates infidels.

For a quarter-century, Collins has survived. In 2014 she was re-elected with 68 per cent of the vote, supported by nearly 40 per cent of Democrats. Now, though, she represents a dying breed of moderate Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, she is the last Republican left in New England.

If there was a decision that has undone Collins, it was her vote to confirm Kavanaugh

two years ago. Her speech was widely watched here. Women were particularly outraged. Overnight, millions flowed into a fund reserved for her (unnamed) opponent.

As Kavanaugh threatens to be the decisive vote in overturning Roe v. Wade (the landmark abortion rights case), women here have mobilized. Many are new to politics.

They are also angry that Collins voted to acquit Trump in his impeachment trial after she agreed to hear witnesses. When it was over, she said Trump would be “much more cautious in the future.” It has made her a laughingstock.

Still, this race is close. Gideon leads narrowly in the polls. She campaigns less as a firebrand than as a prudent voice of the people. Collins hopes to win with strong support in northern Maine, ginned up by Trump. He has not punished Collins for refusing to say whether she will vote for him in November.

In a state going the way of Democratic New England, this may well be the last stand of Susan Collins. Andrew Cohen is a journalist, professor and author of Two Days in June: John F. Kennedy and the 48 Hours That Made History.