It’s that time of the year for scarecrows
Fearmongering will not ease enduring crisis
Friday’s decision by the Ontario government to bust Toronto, Ottawa and Peel Region back down to Phase 2 of reopening — after resisting weeks of demands that they do precisely that, thus squandering huge amounts of the benefit they now claim we can reap — came with the following warning from the public health boffins: “If this dangerous trend ( in COVID-19 transmission rates) continues … updated modelling shows the province could experience worst- case scenarios seen in northern Italy and New York City.”
It was duly reported by the media — how could such an alarming warning not be? In Manhattan, living symbol of western wealth and privilege, we saw nurses wearing garbage bags in lieu of proper protective gowns, and a huge midtown convention centre turned into a field hospital. Prisoners from Rikers Island were burying two dozen bodies a day in trenches. In Bergamo, the hardest-hit city in Lombardy, which was the hardest- hit region in Italy, we saw coffins piled up in churches and loaded onto military trucks heading to crematoriums in other cities.
But to evoke these scenes in Ontario circa Thanksgiving 2020 was rank fearmongering. None of that is going to happen. This government, particularly its incoherent public health leadership, is flailing.
Such disastrous outcomes probably wouldn’ t occur even if regions of Ontario somehow achieved New York City’s or Lombardy’s case counts: We are simply far more prepared for and knowledgeable about this virus. This is easily observable in Italy itself, where caseloads are threatening to match the first wave, but the overall situation is well under control.
Most importantly, we know that COVID-19 ruthlessly targets the elderly — 97 per cent of reported fatalities in Canada have been aged 60 or older, and 74 per cent of those have been 80 or older — and we can focus on protecting them. The biggest worry about a surge in cases among younger people is that they will transmit it to their elders. Ontario’s data thus far suggest that’s not happening in large numbers.
But we’re not going to achieve New York City’s or Lombardy’s case counts. The notion is ridiculous. Lombardy’s seven- day average new- case rate peaked at 213 per million on March 27. New York City’s peaked on April 8 at 635 per million. Ottawa’s, Peel Region’s and Toronto’s spring peaks were 56, 65 and 78 per million. On Friday, the equivalent rates were 110, 67 and 82.
Lombardy’s death rate currently stands at 1,689 per million, New York City’s at 2,866 — in each case, the vast majority of deaths happened early on, as was the case in Toronto. Toronto’s death rate stands at 425 per million.
Why on earth would worst-case scenarios happen now if they didn’t happen back in the spring, when we were being told not to wear masks?
Doctors warn that a surge in COVID-19 patients threatens to displace others requiring critical care that has been on hold for six months — a hugely important consideration, and quite possibly the best argument for what the government did on Friday. But it is a very different problem than doctors and nurses wondering if they’ ll wind up treating patients in parking lots for a virus about which they know almost nothing , hoping someone finds a stockpile of expired PPE somewhere and quite rightly fearing they’ll be the next on a gurney.
And, alas, it is impossible to judge whether these new measures make sense, because we have almost no data to back them up. Queen’s Park provided precisely nothing to suggest dining rooms, barrooms, cinemas, gyms and other now- shuttered environments have been significant sources of infection. This fits a disquieting pattern.
The province and many of its sub- jurisdictions have been admirably forthcoming when it comes to routine reporting of COVID-19 data. The very noticeable exception has been on the question where it is being transmitted. The number of outbreaks is routinely reported, but the number of confirmed cases linked to them is not. Toronto Public Health goes through the trouble of separately reporting outbreaks in “schools” and “child care centres,” but groups a huge chunk of the economy together under “community.”
“Examples of community settings include workplaces, places of worship, food establishments, grocery stores, etc.,” it explains. Oh, and this: “Toronto Public Health has temporarily suspended reporting on outbreaks in community settings until case counts decline.”
I am not conspiratorial by nature, but if I ran a restaurant, had spent the summer doing my damnedest to stay afloat and keeping my staff and customers safe, I very well might think the public health eggheads had some kind of problem with the entire concept of eating out.
For a while, Ford seemed intent on pushing back on such businesses’ behalf: “I want to exhaust every single avenue before I ruin someone’s life,” he said at the beginning of October. And then, armed with no evidence, he folded. If it was the right decision, it came too late. And if he was in any way influenced by the hysterics who want us to believe we’re on the road to New York City or Bergamo, it probably wasn’t even the decision he wanted to make. It’s a hell of a province.