National Post

Oil prices continue to slide.

- David Gaffen

• Oil prices fell on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced plans to boost production capacity and OPEC and the U. S. Energy Informatio­n Administra­tion ( EIA) slashed oil demand forecasts because of the coronaviru­s outbreak.

Brent crude settled down US$ 1.43, or 3.8 per cent, at US$ 35.79 per barrel, while West Texas Intermedia­te ( WTI) crude ended down US$ 1.38 or four per cent to US$32.98.

With the collapse of coordinate­d output cuts by Saudi Arabia, Russia and others, the Saudi energy ministry has directed producer Saudi Aramco to raise its output capacity to 13 million from 12 million barrels per day (bpd).

UAE national oil company ADNOC also said it would raise crude supply to more than 4 million bpd in April and accelerate plans to boost its output capacity to 5 million bpd, a target it had planned to achieve by 2030.

“Saudi’s shock and awe strategy suggests to us that to bring Russia back to the negotiatin­g table, it is serious in causing severe price and revenue pain for all oil producers,” UBS analysts said in a note.

“Higher oil inventorie­s will likely weigh on prices over the coming months.”

Trading in long- dated Brent futures contracts points to expectatio­ns supply will continue to rise. The current Brent front month contract recently traded at more than US$ 5 below the sixmonth contrac, the biggest discount since January 2016.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production capacity were “probably not the best option,” adding Moscow had several phone calls with OPEC and non- OPEC members, but that no partners had agreed to its proposal.

Meanwhile, the Organizati­on of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that it expected global demand to rise by just 60,000 bpd in 2020, a reduction of 920,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

The U. S. Energy Informatio­n Administra­tion (EIA) also said global oil demand is expected to dive by 910,000 bpd in the first quarter due to coronaviru­s outbreak.

Oil prices had climbed US$ 2 earlier in the session on hopes that spending cuts by North American producers to cope with multi- year low crude prices would lead to a drop in output. Numerous U. S. companies have already cut back spending, including Occidental Petroleum Corp., Marathon Oil Corp. and Diamondbac­k Energy Inc.

“Any reduction in spending and drilling will take time to show up in actual production figures and is unlikely to mitigate the bearish impact of a massive Saudi output increase, in case the latter does happen,” oil brokerage PVM’S Tamas Varga said.

Weekly data on U. S. inventorie­s showed little effect from the virus outbreak. Crude stocks rose by 7.7 million barrels, but gasoline and diesel inventorie­s fell sharply, as refining runs remain at seasonally low levels.

“Demand for products is robust — which surprises me. It certainly is coming as a surprise to market watchers here as fear of the impacts to demand brought on by the coronaviru­s have not shown up,” said Tony Headrick, energy market analyst at CHS Hedging.

Policy- makers and central banks have been taking measures against disruption caused by the coronaviru­s outbreak, the latest being the Bank of England which unexpected­ly cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.

“Oil’s supply- demand dynamics still point to a bias for weakness, as Saudi Arabia and Russia engage in a price war that threatens to push global markets into oversuppli­ed conditions, at a time when global demand is being eroded by the coronaviru­s outbreak,” Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM.

A worker at Equinor’s Martin Linge offshore platform has been diagnosed with the coronaviru­s and is in isolation, the Norwegian energy firm said. It said activity on the field will be reduced on Wednesday.

However, China’s independen­t oil refiners are cranking up production as local government­s begin to relax strict measures to contain the coronaviru­s and fuel demand begins to recover.

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