House set to vote,
Wildcard Republicans say not so fast
Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell wants a quick impeachment trial for U. S. President Donald Trump, but unease is growing in Republican leadership circles about a group of party senators who could scupper those plans.
On Wednesday, the U. S. House of Representatives will vote on two articles of impeachment against Trump — that he abused his power and obstructed Congress. The vote, a rubber- stamp from the Democrat- controlled House, will then see the matter go to a full Senate trial in January.
That Senate trial will not, in all likelihood, result in Trump being removed from office. In the 100- seat Senate, the Republican majority is 53- 47. At trial, the U. S. constitution dictates that two- thirds of senators, a super- majority of 67, would have to vote him out. But while the outcome doesn’t appear in danger, the type of Senate trial that Trump will be subjected to has Republicans uneasy.
Mcconnell has pushed in recent weeks for a trial free of witness testimony, saying there’s no need for witnesses in such a “weak case.” His plan, however, is no foregone conclusion. Sources have told CNN that a small group of wildcard senators are drawing concern from a Republican leadership that remains unsure as to how they might vote during any Senate trial. They could go with the Democrats on “key trial- related issues,” it is feared, and turn it into a trial with witnesses and disclosure of key documents — something far more revelatory than key Republicans want in 2020, an election year.
According to CNN, among the wildcards are Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who voted against the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh; Susan Collins of Maine; Mitt Romney of Utah, who is frequently at loggerheads with Trump; Cory Gardner of Colorado; the retiring Lamar Alexander of Tennessee; and his fellow upcoming retirees Pat Roberts ( Kansas) and Mike Enzi ( Wyoming).
Democrat Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority leader, sent a letter to Mcconnell in recent days, CNN reported, urging a full trial. Among those he would like to see called as witnesses? Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney; Robert Blair, Mulvaney’s senior adviser; John Bolton, the ex-national security adviser who had a spectacular falling out with Trump over Afghanistan; and Michael Duffey, a budget official. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is another who could be expected to be called.
CNN reports that should just four senators go against the Mcconnell push for a trial without witnesses, things could be disrupted significantly. While there likely will never be enough rogue senators to have Trump removed, changes to actual trial procedures only require 51 votes — a simple majority.
In any Senate impeachment trial, NBC reports — using the Bill Clinton impeachment trial as a reference — House managers would give opening remarks, followed by Trump’s lawyers. Next, senators could question each side. After that, it can be presumed that senators, should they follow McConnell’s urgings, would ask that proceedings be halted. However, they would need 51 votes to shut things down there and then. Otherwise, the vote could fall in favour of calling witnesses and requesting further documentation, something Mcconnell appears fearful of.
“I’m going to take my cues from the president’s lawyers,” he told Fox News host Sean Hannity in recent days.
“You could certainly make a case for making it shorter rather than longer since it’s such a weak case. The case is so darn weak coming from the House. We know how it’s going to end. There’s no chance the president’s going to be removed from office.”
In public at least, Trump himself has indicated he actually wants a drawn- out trial, complete with myriad witnesses, so he can combat the allegations at the centre of the impeachment proceedings, made by a whistleblower, that he pressured Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter in exchange for the release of U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Recent analysis has pointed out that if Trump is in fact gung- ho for a full trial, his side may be hoping that he can benefit, as Bill Clinton did in 1999, from a public that is sick of attacks on an elected president. Clinton emerged from his own impeachment trial in a stronger position politically.
“Any time people try to lessen this legitimate president, in any way, his voters fight back,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale said last week in a Reuters report.
However, recent polls indicate that Trump’s bravado, if it is in fact legitimate, might not be the wisest strategy.
His approval rat ing has remained largely unchanged, at around 40 per cent, throughout 2019. A new Reuters/ Ipsos poll, meanwhile, shows Democrat respondents want him impeached now more than earlier in the year, and are now even less concerned about what Trump’s impeachment would mean in an election year. Impeachment support, Reuters reports, is up 12 per cent among Democrats since late September, to 78 per cent. Eighty- two per cent of Republicans remain steadily in favour of his non- impeachment.