SlaveS To ‘The baSe’
Increasingly, American politics is controlled by the most militant factions within each party
Republican members of congress sounded nervous when they explained the partial government shutdown this week, their defensive statements sandwiched between quotes from indignant citizens complaining that the gates at the Gettysburg National Military Park are locked.
The republicans have kept insisting that the people will eventually thank them for this inconvenience, but they know the polls are negative and they know they are getting more blame for the shutdown than the democrats.
They probably don’t like being a joke on television, and no doubt they have a normal fear of public opinion. but they fear something else more: They are mortally afraid of the republican party base. The base hates Obama and hates Obamacare even more. So any hint of compromise over the financing of the Affordable care Act would be considered an outrage. Paul Krugman of The New
York Times provided a succinct summary of the conflict: “republican leaders are trapped between an angry base that still views Obamacare as the moral equivalent of slavery and the reality that health reform is the law of the land and is going to happen.”
The base, in either the republican or democratic party, comprises the most zealous members, the most doctrinaire, and most widely publicized. They are hard workers, always ready to turn out as poll captains or door-to-door campaigners.
but a base, while helpful, is also terrifying. Like a feral beast, it’s easily angered. base members scream the loudest, drowning out everyone else. They are grudge-holders with bitter stories to tell about politicians who disappointed them in the past.
They are the voters who most fear betrayal. They are quick to “pivot,” a word made popular in the Obama era. They can wheel away from a candidate who fails to meet their high standards, then show up in force at the next primary and cast him or her into outer darkness.
The base especially affects politicians who have no firm views of their own and perhaps a weak connection with the general public. When that’s the case, politicians are especially vulnerable because the feelings of the base are the strongest
Under the present system, Bill Clinton might not have been nominated: Left-liberals among today’s Democrats would regard him with suspicion and organize against him
feelings they ever hear.
The primaries, which have become more important in the last two decades, have given teeth to the base. They provide a way to kill congressional careers and end presidential dreams.
under the present system, bill clinton might not have been nominated; his New democrat policies, articulated when he headed the democratic Leadership council, included fiscal discipline and free trade. Left-liberals among the democrats of today would regard him with suspicion and organize against him.
The democratic base is the reason barack Obama has so far refused to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. An exhaustive environmental impact study by the State department says it won’t change anything much, but neither the State department nor its scientists are Obama’s constituency.
His base includes millions of Americans who believe the Sierra club knows best on all such matters. (Otherwise, why would those Hollywood stars follow its advice?) Just the sight of daryl Hannah getting handcuffed in a protest, gold- en tresses streaming down her back, proves there must be virtue in the anti-Keystone cause. No one in the base needs more evidence.
Giving the green light to Keystone just because it’s sensible wouldn’t change a single democratic mind. It would be un-Obamalike, an affront to true believers.
Obama can upset his base once in a while, in a symbolic way, providing it’s on something he’s said to care deeply about, such as education. Last spring, for instance, he established a National charter Schools Week, even though charter schools are despised by the teachers’ unions and many activist left-liberals. but Obama knows that he can’t get away with that sort of thing often.
The power of the republican base, strengthened by the Tea Party, was the background to the most curious political show of recent years: the series of all-candidates meetings during the 2012 presidential primaries. In the beginning, there were nine candidates, perched alongside each other like crows on a wire, every one of them desperate to avoid saying a single word that would upset the base.
It was a nationally televised demonstration of what psychologists call “avoidance behaviour.” In this perverse competition, Mitt romney turned out to be the champion. Keeping one eye on the base during the primaries and the presidential election, he made himself acceptable by denying his past accomplishments and many of his long-held opinions. While the base grudgingly tolerated him, he destroyed any hope he had of becoming president.
As for the base itself, its members now spend their energy cheering on the militant republican congressmen who are holding the u.S. government for ransom. For the GOP, it may well be a politically suicidal move. but the base follows its heart, not the polls.
The republicans who stand for re-election in the 2014 midterm elections, alas, will not enjoy that luxury.