As GOP race marches on, voter interest is fading fast

WASHINGTON – The longer the Republican presidential campaign drags on, the more loudly party strategists proclaim the protracted and (frequently) petty campaign will be good for the GOP brand in the long run.

This is what’s called trying to make lemonade out of lemons.

As the race limps toward March, Republican talking heads have been trying to fend off deepening party ennui by comparing the “Mitt vs. Anybody But Mitt” race to the epic battle fought four years ago between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The Republican argument goes something like this: In the same way obama emerged stronger for having bested the Clinton machine after a January-to-june primary contest in 2008, the ultimate winner of the Republican pie fight will be better prepared to withstand the barrage he’ll face from Democrats come fall.

“History shows that tough primaries and a little bit of drama are a good thing for the challenging party,” Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said recently. “Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – they killed each other through June. And guess what? He won pretty easily. I think the evidence is there.”

Actually, it’s not. The Romney vs. Santorum vs. Gingrich vs. Paul race bears little similarity to the Obama-clinton marathon.

Let’s start with the enthusiasm gap.

One of the defining characteristics of the 2008 Democratic race was the energy it generated in the party.

From Iowa to New Hamp- shire to South Carolina and beyond, it was rare to attend a Clinton or Obama campaign event that wasn’t jammed to the rafters with supporters. The queues outside often extended around auditoriums, out of crowded parking lots, down side streets.

Ahead of the Texas primary four years ago in march, Obama drew 20,000 people to a campus rally on the San Marcos River. People climbed trees along the riverbank for a glimpse of the candidate.

Contrast that with the Republican race, where top-tier candidates have drawn shy of 100 people to some events and a “good crowd” tops out at about 300 or 400. In South Carolina, Newt Gingrich cancelled an appearance at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference when only a dozen or so people showed up.

The search for energized voters on Mitt Romney’s campaign can prove just as elusive.

Romney’s big economic address in Detroit was held at the 65,000-seat Ford Field. Every actual seat in the joint was empty – a few Chamber of Commerce types huddled on the 30-yard line to listen.

The longer the GOP race has continued, the less interested Republican voters have become. Turnout was lower in five of the last six contests – Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Florida – than in 2008. Last week’s Arizona debate drew 4.7 million viewers, down from the 5.3 million who watched the candidates clash Jan. 26 in Florida.

Where Democrats in 2008 were motivated by the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, and enthused with historymaking candidates, the GOP race has been defined by a lack of sustained momentum for Romney and fickle waves of support for his rivals.

The tone of the 2012 race has also been more negative. About the meanest thing said in 2008 was when Obama, during a New Hampshire debate, told Clinton: “You’re likable enough, Hillary.”

Again, contrast that with the Republicans. Gingrich has called Romney a liar. Ron Paul not only aired an ad describing Rick Santorum as a “fake” conservative, he also said it to his face. WWE wrestling matches have seen fewer finger wags and taunts.

“Whoever emerges is likely to be stronger for having gone through this gruelling process,” argues former Bush aide Karl Rove.

Maybe, but there’s not much evidence of that yet.

A Gallup poll last week found 55 per cent of Republican voters wished for another candidate. Romney’s approval rating is down – 39 per cent versus 50 per cent for Obama – and his negatives are up.

“I watch these debates and ... it’s a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people’s fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective,” former Florida governor Jeb Bush said last week.

As the Republican race turns Tuesday to Michigan and Arizona, the campaign buzz is less about who is gaining momentum than who is losing it.

Speculation about a late-entering white knight candidate, however fanciful, persists.

“If the Republican primary voters continue to split up their votes in such a way that nobody is close to having a majority, then there is a chance somebody else might get in,” former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour told ABC News.

The Republican base is frustrated and dissatisfied when it should be inspired.

The most recent CBS/NEW York Times poll found 57 per cent of respondents believed a long primary fight would hurt their eventual nominee. That’s a level of pessimism no party wants heading into an election campaign against a polarizing president once thought to be ripe for the GOP’S picking.