Every age group under 65 is growing in the Hat
A deeper look into the 2016 federal census finds that all non-senior age groups in Medicine Hat are growing, likely due to families choosing to move here.
The steady influx is not enough to keep a glut of aging baby boomers from raising the average age here above the national and provincial averages.
Still, more than 1,000 new residents of school or prime working age arrived in Medicine Hat over the past five years — and that is over and above those who may have moved away.
The past five years have been full of angst for Hatters concerned about economic growth since a 2012 city census showed only 83 new residents arrived over a two-year period.
Anecdotal evidence of young families moving due to job losses however, doesn’t seem to show up in the census numbers.
Statistics Canada announced Wednesday that across Canada seniors now outnumber youths (those younger than 15), and that finding also applies to Medicine Hat, but not the vast majority of Alberta or the Prairies.
Seniors make up 17.7 per cent of the local population compared to 12.3 per cent throughout Alberta, again leading to worries that attracting more young families is needed to keep the community healthy and growing.
Ryan Jackson, head of the city-contracted economic development agency, Invest Medicine Hat, said Alberta has seen large population booms that are often difficult to manage and can cause strain on local economies.
“I’d rather have stable growth of 1 to 2 per cent,” he said.
That’s what has generally happened in Medicine Hat.
City councillors who provided comment this week said generally they would be more concerned if younger age groups were shrinking, and they are not.
To determine migration, the News compared the size of age groups as they progressed to another bracket over the fiveyear period.
It found that every age bracket showed growth up to age 64, at which point the number of deaths, which is not known, likely plays a larger role.
For example, someone who was 19 in 2011 is now 24 and counted in a different cohort.
The 2011 group of 20-34year-olds saw an increase of 500 to their numbers today considering they are now aged 25 to 39.
Over the same time, the total number of present day youths now aged 5- to 20-years-old rose by 560.
That is equal to about five per cent over five years, similar to the general trend. The number of newborn to four-yearolds in both census years remained steady.
The pure numerical increase in the size of the senior population could be attributed to a large number counted as 60-64year-olds in 2011 having graduated to the ranks of the retired.
Changing demographics can spell changes and stress for health care, education, other government services and communities in general.
School District 76 secretarytreasurer Jerry Labossiere said his organization has not experienced major change up or down since 2012.
Instead the district’s enrolment totals have seen mild growth each year reflected in the census.
“It might not match up exactly but that’s pretty much what we’re seeing,” said Labossiere, whose office has seen an average increase of 1.9 per cent per year over for five years.
Alberta Education predicts a 0.5 per cent decrease in local school population for next fall but SD 76 is budgeting for no change.
“We’re always conservative but we’re just not seeing (a decrease) in our registrations.”
Child-care providers say they haven’t seen a notable increase but some felt area unemployment had led to a decrease in need for their services as at least one parent was at home.