Oilers coaches: By the numbers.
The Edmonton Oilers under coach Dallas Eakins have now played 48 games, the same number the team played under former bench boss Ralph Krueger in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season.
Which coach has the Oilers performing better?
By the numbers, here’s a comparison of how the two teams did in those 48 games under the two coaches (it should be noted that Krueger’s team played against only tougher Western conference teams, while Eakins’ teams have played almost half their games against weaker Eastern Conference teams): Overall Ranking in the NHL standings: Eakins 29th, Krueger 24th.
Advantage: Krueger. Krueger had the team trending in the right direction. Points in standings: Eakins 35, Krueger 45.
Advantage: Krueger Total goals against: Eakins 167, Krueger 131.
Advantage: Krueger. Devan Dubnyk’s save percentage has dropped low this year, while last season he was solid, and it’s hard to know how much, if any, Eakins deserves blame or Krueger credit in that regard. Dubnyk’s performance is mostly his own responsibility, with some of his drop-off also due to bad puck luck. Total goals for: Eakins 124, Krueger 123.
Advantage: Eakins Goal differential: Eakins -43, Krueger -8.
Advantage: Krueger Shots for and against per game: Eakins 27.2 shots for and 31.7 against: Krueger 26.8 shots for and 32.8 against.
Advantage: Eakins Scoring chances for and against per game: Eakins 14.9 for, 16.1 against, Krueger 15.7 for, 18.8 against.
Advantage: Eakins Scoring chances for and against per game vs. Western conference teams: Eakins 13.8 for, 18.1 against, Krueger 15.7 for, 18.8 against.
Advantage: Krueger. In these more difficult games, Krueger had the team doing a bit better. Power play goals for, success rate and power play ranking: Eakins 30 goals, 18.1% and 16th overall; Krueger 34 goals, 20.1% and 8th overall.
Advantage: Krueger. In the last month of the 2013 season, Krueger had Yakupov, with his dangerous shot, on the right-half wall on the power play and that unit was highly successful. Penalty kill goals against, clearance rate, and penalty kill ranking: Eakins 33 goals, 80.1% and 21st overall; Krueger 29 goals, 83.4% and 9th overall
Advantage: Krueger. Top point scorers: Taylor Hall — Eakins 43 points, Krueger 50 points; Jordan Eberle — Eakins 37, Krueger 37; Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — Eakins 35, Krueger 24; Ales Hemsky — Eakins 24, Krueger 20; Justin Schultz — Eakins 19, Krueger 27; Nail Yakupov — Eakins 17, Krueger 31; Sam Gagner — Eakins 18, Krueger 38.
Advantage: Krueger Individual scoring chances plus minus of top players at even strength: Nugent-Hopkins — Eakins +1.4 scoring chances per 15 minutes even strength to Krueger +2.5 per 15; Hall, Eakins +2.1, Krueger +3.7; Yakupov — Eakins +1.6, Krueger +1.5; Eberle, Eakins +2.2, Krueger +4.0; Gagner — Eakins +0.4, Krueger +0.9; Petry — Eakins +0.4, Krueger -0.8; J. Schultz — Eakins +0.1, Krueger +0.1.
Advantage: Krueger. Other than Petry, whose game has taken up a big step up under Eakins, the two-way games of the top players have trended down or gone sideways this season by this metric. Shots at net (Corsi) percentage of top players at even strength (a percentage of 50+ means that the player is on-ice for more shots at net for than shots at net against): Hall, Eakins 43.2%, Krueger 50.4%; Hemsky, Eakins 48.3%, Krueger 43.8%; Eberle — Eakins 47.6%, Krueger, 50.9%; Petry — Eakins 47.1%, Krueger 44.4%; Yakupov — Eakins 47%, Krueger 42.5%; Gagner — Eakins 45.9%, Krueger 43.1 %; Justin Schultz — Eakins 44.4%, Krueger 43.9%; Nugent-Hopkins — Eakins 45.1%, Krueger 49.9%.
Advantage: Eakins NHL official goals plus-minus of top players: Eberle — Eakins -11, Krueger -4; Hall — Eakins -14, Krueger +5; Nugent-Hopkins — Eakins -12, Krueger +3; Petry — Eakins -12, Krueger +1; J. Schultz — Eakins -15, Krueger -17; Hemsky — Eakins -11, Krueger -6; Gagner — Eakins -19, Krueger -6; Yakupov — Eakins -28, Krueger -4. Advantage: Krueger. Overall, the top players did better under Krueger, especially when it comes to their two-way play at even strength. Krueger’s power play and penalty kill units also performed better.
It’s evident that Krueger got more out of his players than Eakins has — as of yet.
Unlike Krueger, though, Eakins is going to get at least a full year to prove himself, so we’ll check in again in another 34 games.