Russia’s invasion has Ottawa looking to ‘protect our Arctic sovereignty’
With Russia — Canada’s Arctic neighbour — firing missiles into Ukraine, Defence Minister Anita Anand is pledging to modernize the alliance protecting Canada’s North.
“There’s no doubt the global security environment has changed ... There is no question that our foreign policy, and certainly our defence policy has to adapt,” Anand told an Ottawa defence conference on March 11. “The work is happening now to ensure that we are prepared for any eventuality, including in terms of protecting our Arctic sovereignty.”
WHAT’S THE CONCERN WITH THE ARCTIC?
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Canadian government was flagging Russia’s activities in the region. Briefing materials prepared for Mélanie Joly when she became foreign affairs minister said that Canada views the Arctic as “emerging as an area of geostrategic importance and competition.”
Russia, China and the United States are “developing capabilities to better operate and project their presence.” Russia is reinvesting its military capabilities and presence in the region, while China has declared itself a “near Arctic” state that has strategic interests in the area, according to the document.
WHAT ARE RUSSIA AND CHINA UP TO?
The briefing binder said China has also been expanding its “investments and engagement in the polar regions including seeking to influence Canadian Arctic communities.”
Adam Lajeunesse, the Irving Shipbuilding chair in Canadian arctic marine security at St. Francis Xavier University, said there’s no evidence of China looking to influence Northern communities in Canada. But, of course, the government could know something that’s not public knowledge. And such behaviour is “absolutely China’s modus operandi,” Lajeunesse said. “If we look at the way China has tried to influence different Arctic countries ... it often bypasses the central government to try and win friends and influence in communities themselves.”
That said, China has never deployed a warship to the Arctic circle, and is unlikely to do so in the near future, Lajeunesse said. “So the Chinese are not a military threat in the Arctic, certainly not yet. The Russians absolutely are,” he said.
THE ARCTIC ISN’T A MONOLITH, THOUGH
It’s important to draw a distinction between the Canadian and European Arctic, Lajeunesse said, explaining Russia’s “ability to project power into the Canadian Arctic has not materially increased in the last decade.”
Russia has “considerable” militarization in the Arctic, but it “can’t even reach Canada. It’s not a threat to Canada,” he said. Indeed, Joly’s briefing binder pegs the threat of conflict in the area as low.
But the European Arctic, Lajeunesse said, “is very much in danger of Russian aggression, because they share a border with Russia, and they are very much in a range of all of the weapons.”
The Canadian Arctic is “not something the Russians are going to attack or fight over, but it is an avenue through which” Russian submarines or Russian cruise missiles might travel, he said.
WHAT’S THE DANGER TO CANADA?
Robert Huebert, associate professor of political science at the University of Calgary, thinks there’s a bigger threat of conflict in the Arctic than some of his colleagues do. Arguing that we’re farther away from Russia than other northern countries “totally misses the point.”
“We are in an alliance, and if fighting in the North occurs within the context of say, Norway, Denmark or any of our other northern allies ... we are then, of course, obligated to go to their defence,” he said. “One can assume that the Russians will anticipate that, and we can assume that they will look for a weak link.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean we need a base or troops in the North. “That’s not what the threat is. The threat is an aerospace, maritime threat,” he said.