HINSHAW SAID SHE'D MONITOR, AND THAT'S WHAT SHE'S DOING
Top doctor isn't retreating, she's keeping her word to constantly stay on top of COVID
There are those who are saying that Dr. Deena Hinshaw has suffered a “defeat” and has had to “eat humble pie” by “walking back” planned changes to how the province will respond to COVID -19.
That's one uncharitable way of looking at it. On the other hand, Hinshaw is doing exactly what she said she'd do.
On July 28, when she first outlined plans to drastically reduce measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 — plans that led to outrage by many Albertans — she said then that she “will closely monitor these changes and adapt as needed, to give more time to vaccinate Albertans ... and will take whatever actions are needed to manage any high-risk outbreaks or severe cases as we do with any communicable disease.”
Hinshaw also said, “We'll keep watching COVID-19 closely” and keep “a close eye on hospitalizations in Alberta.”
She has kept her word.
Instead of proceeding with plans to loosen testing and isolation requirements, she is delaying that plan until Sept. 27. Testing at assessment centres will remain available for any symptomatic person; isolation will remain mandatory for 10 days for those with COVID-19 symptoms; and, masking will remain mandatory on public transit, taxis and ride shares. During this time period she will continue to reassess the situation.
Hinshaw says both local and international data have emerged that caused her to defer the changes she originally scheduled for Aug. 16.
NON-ICU hospitalizations in Alberta “are trending somewhat higher than we anticipated,” she said. Modelling forecasted about 90 total cases in hospital and currently there are 146 cases — a 62-per-cent increase — with no risk to hospital capacity, she noted.
She's also been watching what's been happening in the United States as it battles the Delta variant; it's different from what's happened in the United Kingdom. which informed the province's original decision.
“In the U.K., the Delta variant did not cause a different experience in children than previous COVID waves,” she said. “Children under 15 remained the lowest risk of severe outcomes from infection. In the U.S., unfortunately, hospitalizations in children have started to rise, most significantly in states with lower overall immunization rates.”
Hinshaw says the most likely reason for that is the difference between the level of adult immunization between the two settings.
In the U.K., almost 75 per cent of adults have received two doses of vaccine, while in Florida, “one of the states where high hospitalizations have been reported in children,” only 60 per cent of adults are fully vaccinated, she said.
“In Alberta, at just over 67 per cent of the eligible population fully immunized, we are in the middle of these two. Given the emerging evidence, I want to further monitor these trends.”
Hinshaw says a similar rise in severe cases in youth in Alberta has not happened. Since July 1, only seven Albertans under the age of 18 have been hospitalized and no one under that age has died of COVID in Alberta since March 2020, when the pandemic began.
“We are not going backwards; we are pausing to monitor and assess before taking the next step forward.”
By forward, she means less restrictions. This is something everyone in a highly vaccinated society should want.
The government website shows that vaccination at higher levels will lead to more freedoms more quickly.
Since Jan. 1: 94.2 per cent of cases of COVID-19 were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date; 91.8 per cent of hospitalized cases were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date; 86.5 per cent of COVID-19 deaths were unvaccinated or diagnosed within two weeks from the first dose immunization date.
And those who were vaccinated and wound up in hospital had, what's called, co-morbidities — things like hypertension, cardio-vascular disease, diabetes, cancer, liver disease, immunodeficiencies, etc. This doesn't mean that their COVID experience should be discounted in any way, but it is to say that if you are double vaccinated and you don't have other underlying health conditions that increase your risk of serious outcomes from COVID, you are not at risk of severe illness or death from this virus.
According to a recent tweet by Hinshaw, from Thursday,
90.6 per cent of those in ICU are unvaccinated and 5.6 per cent are only partially vaccinated. In
other words, only 3.8 per cent of those in ICU have been fully vaccinated. Surely all these numbers speak volumes about the answer to this issue.
Get double vaccinated.
As she said, it's important to “make sure that precautions are proportionate to overall risk level.”
“We know that the public health measures that were necessary last year to control COVID-19 — including the temporary closure of schools to in-person learning, quarantine of entire classes and cancelling extracurricular events — have been associated with a deterioration in the mental health of children and youth,” said Hinshaw, who is tasked with finding the right balance between risks and precautions.
She says almost eight times as many children were admitted to hospital for anxiety disorders than for COVID-19 in 2020.
A psychiatric nurse, who asked to remain anonymous, reached out to me Friday after she heard me ask questions about the mental health of youth.
“Our unit is full-to-overflowing and the wait list of teens in emergency is never less than 10 kids waiting for a bed in some facility. Suicides and the use of the statement, `I'm going to kill myself,' is ever increasing since COVID began. Teens are absolutely in turmoil! And with so few outlets and social `in-person' activities, it has been very difficult to assist them.”
It was risky from a public relations perspective for Hinshaw to push the envelope the way she did two weeks ago when she first announced her hoped-for further loosening of COVID restrictions. She was attacked viciously online for attempting that. I, for one, am grateful that we have a chief medical officer of health and government that in light of widespread vaccination errs on the side of freedom rather than restrictions. Doing so has likely saved many people from falling into despair.