NO CARBON TAX CLARITY

On the first day of the fall legislature sitting, the NDP government released what is billed as an economic analysis of the impact of a carbon tax. The document is a disservice to Albertans given the risk the levy, which will start being imposed Jan. 1, presents to the economy.

The analysis released Monday is just 409 words and fails to satisfactorily outline the price Albertans can expect to pay for the introduction of an economywide tax on carbon. It states Alberta’s gross domestic product will grow about 0.05 per cent slower in each of the next six years than it otherwise would, but then concedes the government doesn’t have a firm grasp of the potential consequences of its policy.

“The assessment of impacts is preliminary,” says the one-page report, adding that “measuring the economic impact of carbon pricing is complicated.”

The absence of firm numbers doesn’t prevent the government from crowing about the fact a made-in-Alberta tax avoids one being dictated to us by Ottawa. That’s true, but the NDP’s starts a year earlier than the Trudeau Liberals’ tax and climbs more quickly in the early years — this during a time of economic uncertainty. There’s also the reality that other provinces are embracing different models, such as British Columbia, which has a revenue-neutral system, and Ontario and Quebec, which are pursuing cap and trade.

Perhaps the most curious assertion in the analysis is that if a pipeline is approved, the credit belongs to the government’s carbon tax.

“If Alberta carbon policy leads to improved market access, the estimated positive economic effect would be significant,” says the document. “The immediate approval of at least one major pipeline ... is estimated to lift GDP by about one per cent by 2022.”

Surely it’s reasonable to expect that pipelines should proceed regardless of Alberta’s climate policies, given that they’re in the country’s best economic interest. It shouldn’t be the case that if the NDP doesn’t impose a carbon tax — a year earlier than directed by the Liberals — that pipeline applications will be rejected. And remember, even approval by the Trudeau cabinet doesn’t mean a project will escape the interference of other premiers, environmental groups and aboriginals.

The government is determined to proceed with its carbon tax because it believes it’s the correct action to take. That’s its right, even though the NDP didn’t campaign on a levy during the 2015 election.

What it has yet to do, however, is fully explain the ramifications of the tax on Albertans and the economy.

It’s likely we’ll figure them out for ourselves starting in January.