CALGARY RANKED DEAD LAST: CONFERENCE BOARD

Calgary will go from having one of the country’s top performing economies in 2014 to among the worst this year, according to a Conference Board of Canada report one city business leader says may be too optimistic.

The board’s Metropolitan Outlook, which examined 13 major cities across the country, said Calgary’s economy will see real gross domestic product plunge from 5.1 per cent in 2014 to negative 0.5 per cent this year, the first contraction in Calgary since 2009.

It said the low oil price and resulting economic downturn will have sweeping consequences, including a noticeable slowdown in net migration.

Adam Legge, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, said he believes the city’s economic performance could be even worse than the conference board is forecasting. “If you look basically 2015 over 2014, it was only the last three months of 2014 that the energy prices began to slip away. We had some pretty good numbers for 2014.

“So, given where energy prices and therefore revenues of companies were in 2014 over 2015, I can’t see how it’s going to be anything less than one or one and a half per cent ( contraction in the economy),” said Legge.

Looking forward, the board expects Calgary’s economy to be third best in the country between 2016- 2019, averaging growth of 2.5 per cent a year — behind only Vancouver at 3 per cent and Toronto at 2.7 per cent.

The report said services sector activity will slow sharply this year because Calgary is the head- office hub of Canada’s oil and gas sector.

“Indeed, business services output is forecast to grow at its slowest rate in five years. Transportation and warehousing output is also forecast to slow as the slowing economy reduces shipping needs. Finally, we expect output to fall in wholesale and retail trade and in personal services as anxious consumers tighten their purse strings,” it warns.