REDFORD UP FOR REVIEW
WIN EXPECTED, BUT DISCONTENT SIMMERS
Alison Redford’s political career has been a wild ride, with an upset win in the Tory leadership race to become Alberta’s premier and a come-from-behind victory to maintain the Progressive Conservative dynasty in the 2012 election.
Yet, a year-and-a-half after that sweeping win, the uncertainty is back as the 48-year-old Calgarian faces a mandatory party review of her leadership by PC delegates at the convention that begins Friday in Red Deer.
No one expects Tory members to throw Redford out this weekend and opt for another leadership campaign, but the level of support she garners may determine the success — or failure — of her premiership.
While some of Redford’s backers are adjusting expectations downward for the number the premier will get in the review, senior party officials and members of her cabinet expect her to sail through with strong support.
Yet, behind the scenes, there is simmering discontent among some PC MLAs and officials over Redford’s stewardship.
And, publicly, some stalwarts of previous Tory governments are tepid in their support of her leadership, refusing to say how they will vote.
“I’ve got to be convinced that things are going to be OK,” said former MLA Ty Lund, who doesn’t know how he’s going to cast his ballot.
“There are things that you just can see out in the public that really bother me.”
But veteran cabinet minister Dave Hancock, who served in the Klein and Stelmach governments with Lund, predicted Redford won’t have any issues.
“We’ve got a great leader. We’ve got somebody who’s good on the national stage, good on the international stage, somebody who is intelligent, who can stand in there and someone we can be proud of,” he said. “That’s where the party stands right now.”
However, pollster Janet Brown said it’s impossible to get a clear read on how the vote will shake out, given the fact only core Tory supporters can cast a ballot. “It’s a wild card,” said Brown. “There are so many more levels of gamesmanship this time ... Nothing is off the table for me.”
Leadership reviews have been a mighty ordeal for PC leaders over the past decade.
Ralph Klein — a beloved icon of the party — hastened his departure when he received only 55 per cent support from delegates in 2006.
Ed Stelmach, who had served years in the trenches for the Tories and had a rock-solid base of support in rural Alberta — won the backing of 77 per cent of delegates in 2009. Yet, that wasn’t enough to quell party infighting and Stelmach announced he would step down just over a year later, setting the stage for Redford’s ascension.
For her part, the Calgary-Elbow MLA has been an unusual fit at the top of the Tory heap since she won an underdog victory in the 2011 leadership race.
A human-rights lawyer and Red Tory who entered the contest with only one caucus supporter, Redford mobilized thousands to join the party and propel her to an upset win over favourite Gary Mar.
Now, facing her first internal review since that victory, there is no open opposition to Redford within PC ranks and party president Jim McCormick said he has “no concerns about what the outcome will be.”
But some party veterans — fearful of the consequences of having their names made public — are deeply unhappy.
“Alison Redford is destroying the Progressive Conservative party and we are going to lose the next election if she is leader,” declared a member of the party’s 50-odd board of directors.
Other PC officials describe her as indifferent to party matters and point to dismal fundraising under her leadership.
In 2012, the PCs ended the year nearly $800,000 in debt after wiping out its war chest due to election spending.
Outpaced by the Wildrose Party in raising cash this year and about to run its second deficit in a row, the PC party has been forced to eliminate positions while its board contemplates a controversial plan to take money from constituencies.
“It’s kind of like, ‘Where are you?’ When it comes to the party perspective, she’s kind of not really there,” said a constituency association president who will vote against Redford this weekend.
The turnover of staff in the premier’s office and questions about her relationship with government members have also raised concerns.
One Tory MLA, asking not to be named, said he will vote against Redford, largely because she’s dismissive toward her caucus, especially backbenchers.
But the politician also believes she’s started to “grow into the job” and will probably win the backing of most PC MLAs.
Redford’s progressive image — and stumbles by the surging Wildrose Party — paid off in last year’s provincial election.
A new coalition of voters came together under her, even as the Wildrose captured 17 seats, primarily in southern parts of Alberta.
But the collection of supporters hasn’t necessarily stayed with Redford and the Tories, especially after unpopular government actions, such as a major cut to post-secondary education and plans to reform public sector pensions.
The government’s policies are also weighing heavily on the minds of traditional supporters.
Several former Tory MLAs said there is unhappiness in rural areas that formerly were solidly PC and a perception the government is more concerned about shoring up votes in the cities than smaller communities.
Lund, a former environment minister who lost to the Wildrose in 2012, said one of the biggest concerns is seemingly poor management that forces frequent government retreats, such as recently pulling a controversial regional planning bill.
Since the 2012 election, the party has been plagued by a series of controversies and missteps, including accusations of conflict of interest aimed at Redford — which have not been proven — and a broken promise to balance the books this year.
It’s the financial situation that has created some of the biggest waves among fiscal conservatives, as the province runs its sixth-straight deficit.
While the government has curtailed operational spending, it has also launched an ambitious plan to borrow billions to finance capital projects.
There are things that you just can see out in the public that really bother me FORMER MLA TY LUND
“I constantly have people coming up to me and saying, what on earth is going on? Why are we going into debt?” said Lund, an MLA for more than two decades.
Former Little Bow MLA Barry McFarland, who retired in 2012 and saw his seat go to the Wildrose, said his former constituents aren’t likely to return to the PC fold unless the province’s books are in order and Redford is no longer at the helm.
McFarland, who likely won’t attend the convention, thinks the government isn’t listening to the party’s grassroots in any case.
“I was here for 20 years, I haven’t got a call from one of them asking my opinion on anything. In fact, when I sent my opinions in on the closure of the long-term care continuing centre, I might as well of put ’em in a rocket and sent ’em up in space,” he said.
Lorne Taylor, a former environment minister under Klein, said there’s little doubt the party is in trouble in rural Alberta, especially in the south.
Taylor said he’s loyal to the party and will attend the annual meeting, but declined to say whether he would support Redford in the review.
“Voting’s a private matter,” said Taylor.
Ron Liepert, who served as finance minister under Redford before choosing not to run in 2012, won’t say how he’ll vote if he chooses to attend the convention, but expects
The premier is delivering exceptional leadership for the province ENERGY MINISTER KEN HUGHES
the premier to prevail.
“I don’t get the impression that members of the party are that excited about having another leadership (race) again. So I think she’ll do fine,” he said.
“What fine is, I don’t know.”
There are many PC standardbearers firmly in Redford’s corner, however.
Shirley McClellan, who served as finance minister under Klein, isn’t concerned with the government’s fiscal policy and said circumstances are different than in the debt-cutting 1990s.
The government is less than halfway through its term and “is doing a reasonably decent job in a tough time,” she said.
“I don’t get too excited at this point of the governing period ... get the convention out of the way, the leadership out of the way, get some certainty into plans going forward and we’ll see how it goes,” McClellan said.
Redford supporters point to successes she has racked up, including more transparency and accountability measures, labour peace with the province’s doctors and teachers, and roaring economic and population growth.
In recent weeks, she has also signed a framework agreement with British Columbia on future pipeline developments and saw a deal approved that will lead to the long-awaited southwest ring road in Calgary.
Likely the most significant check mark on the premier’s ledger is her handling of the floods that swept through southern Alberta in June.
“The premier is delivering exceptional leadership for the province,” said Energy Minister Ken Hughes.
“The premier has led us through those difficult challenges like the flood, the economic challenges we have and our need to reach out to international markets with exceptional vigour, enthusiasm and focus — and what more could Albertans ask for?”
Many Tories echo Liepert’s point, saying there is little stomach for another leadership race — it would be the third in seven years — within the party.
Analysts like Brown point out there is no natural alternative to Redford waiting in the wings, although former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel — who will attend the convention — often gets mentioned as a leadership aspirant.
Unlike the past two leadership reviews, former energy minister Rick Orman doesn’t see an orchestrated push to remove the party’s head.
“The thing about Klein and Stelmach, there was actually a movement to change the leadership. I don’t sense that going into this convention,” said Orman, a twotime PC leadership candidate who won’t say how he’ll vote.
Yet, people will be watching closely what level of support she receives Saturday.
Some observers believe Redford must exceed Stelmach’s 77 per cent, while others set the bar lower, such as two-thirds support.
Political analyst David Taras from Mount Royal University said any number in the 60 per cent range could spell political trouble for the premier, while anything above 70 per cent gives her breathing room.
“There’s wins that are wins and wins that are losses — and if you’re in the low 60s or below, I think it’s a win, but it’s a psychological loss,” he said.
But any number below 60 per cent and “others will start sharpening the knives ... it would be another bloodbath in the party,” Taras predicted.