Redford team sets bar low
‘50 per cent plus one’ good enough in review, supporter says —
With Alison Redford facing the judgment of the Tory faithful this weekend, the premier’s supporters are setting the bar low for the party’s mandatory review of her two-yearold leadership.
As many as 1,500 party members could be in attendance at the Progressive Conservative’s annual general meeting that runs Friday and Saturday in Red Deer, where they will vote on whether they want a new leadership race.
While Redford has steadfastly refused to put forward a number she wants to get, those close to her are suggesting the premier doesn’t need a landslide — or even above 60 per cent — to carry on.
“We’ve had a government that’s had a really tough couple of years with finances and so on,” said Susan Elliott, campaign manager for the PCs in the 2012 provincial election who is now working unofficially to help bring delegates to Redford’s side. “So, frankly, in my mind anything in the 50s (per cent) is good, anything in the 60s is a success and anything in the 70s is absolutely a triumph.”
Leadership reviews have proved problematic for Alberta Tory leaders in the past decade.
Long-serving premier Ralph Klein had his departure hastened when he won only 55 per cent support from delegates in 2006.
Three years later, Ed Stelmach won the backing of 77 per cent of delegates but it wasn’t enough to staunch party infighting. After only one election, Stelmach announced he would step down just over a year later amid turmoil in his government.
An adviser to Redford, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said “50 per cent plus one is the working premise” to continue in office.
“This party is not unified, but no party is,” said the source.
“Given the nature of this party and the history frankly of this party, ever since the days really of Ralph Klein, it is a party that really straddles an enormous part of the spectrum ... so given that, there is discontent that would be wider than in other parties ...
“So, I fully expect it not to be as high as we all like, but that’s just the nature of the party.”
Last month, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith captured 90 per cent support in her party’s leadership review, while Liberal Leader Raj Sherman got 94 per cent backing in 2012.
There is no public organized opposition to Redford’s leadership, but there have been rumblings within the PC party over everything from the Tories’ struggling fundraising to falling polls numbers to the government’s plan to borrow billions of dollars for capital in a seeming repudiation of Klein’s fiscal legacy.
Supporters, however, point to Redford’s recent successes, such as her work shepherding the government’s response to June’s massive flooding, her quest to open new markets for Alberta energy — including the recent agreement with British Columbia around pipeline development — and the successful deal with the Tsuu T’ina Nation to complete Calgary’s southwest ring road.
Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said party members will each bring “their own scorecard” of what Redford has to achieve.
But he said Redford — who won an upset victory to become Tory leader in 2011 — likely has to garner at least two-thirds of the voting delegates to maintain credibility.
“As soon as you’re in the low-60s, I think there’s a psychological tilt and you are more vulnerable and are perceived to be more vulnerable,” he said Tuesday.
Calgary-based public opinion research analyst Janet Brown said Redford backers are clearly trying to manage expectations ahead of the vote.
“She is trying to set the stage to make 70 (per cent) seem like a huge victory,” Brown said.
Elliott acknowledged that merely scraping by with 50 per cent plus one would send a “powerful signal” that would make it difficult for the premier to carry on in office.
But Elliott insisted she’s hearing little to suggest Redford is in any difficulty.
However, she acknowledged there is a concern, simply because of the uncertainty around the secret ballot process.
“There will be people out there who are telling us they support the premier, who are wearing her button, who are even speaking on her behalf, who will go into the voting booth and quietly vote yes (to a new leadership race),” said Elliott.
“Are there people who will change their mind at the last minute? Quite possibly. Is her speech on Friday night important? Absolutely.”