Political leaning still a major factor

CONSERVATIVE OUTLOOK WILL CARRY AT LEAST AS MUCH WEIGHT AS CREDENTIALS, SAY ANALYSTS

Monday’s election has attracted an impressive field of 13 Senate hopefuls, though few have any likelihood of receiving an appointment from the prime minister.

Political leanings are likely to carry as much weight as credentials when it comes to being handed a coveted seat in the upper chamber to replace three retiring senators.

That leaves three Progressive Conservatives and three Wildrose representatives as leading contenders when Alberta’s Conservative Senator Bert Brown retires in 2013, followed by Liberal Senator Joyce Fairbairn in 2014 and Conservative Betty Unger in 2018.

The remaining candidates are all independents, with the exception of Elizabeth Johannson of the newly minted Evergreen party. Nobody is running under the Liberal, New Democrat or Alberta Party banners.

“There is no doubt this race has attracted indi- viduals who are worthy of people’s attention, but they don’t nearly have as much of a chance if they don’t have a party affiliation or much name recognition,” said Steve Patten, a political science professor at the University of Alberta. “Plus, federal appointments are often tainted by politics, and that means it is very unlikely anybody other than a Conservative would be appointed.

“Anyone else would have to have such a strong firstplace finish that it would make them impossible to ignore.”

The Senate nominee election is the fourth for Alberta, the only province to select candidates for appointment to the upper chamber. Although he is under no obligation, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to name Alberta’s next senators from among the top three vote-getters.

“The fact that the Conservatives and the Wildrose put forward slates of really well-known and impressive candidates suggests that it means something to them,” Patten said.

Though they are running under provincial party banners, Wildrose and Conservative candidates have vowed to sit with Harper’s Senate caucus if chosen.

Tory hopefuls include Doug Black, chairman of the University of Calgary’s board of governors, Mike Shaikh, president of the Calgary police commission, and Scott Tannas, president of the Western Financial Group.

Running for the Wildrose are Vitor Marciano, the party’s former executive director and the former chairman of the Conservative national policy committee, former police officer Rob Gregory, and gas-line operator Raymond Germain.

University of Alberta political scientist Ian Urquhart, who opposes Harper on environmental issues, and former Liberal MLA Len Bracko, a St. Albert city councillor and former school teacher, are among the independents.

Chaldeans Mensah, chairman of the political science department at Grant Macewan University, said he doesn’t believe voters have taken the time to assess Senate candidates, so it is most likely they will make selections along party lines.

The lack of any Liberal and NDP candidates could possibly open the door for one of the independents to land in the top three, Mensah said.

“There is a whole mass of unhappy NDP and Liberal voters that may bring the independents into play,” Mensah said.