Mmegi

Flawed elections and poor governance underlie Africa’s backslidin­g

- *JAKKIE CILLIERS (ISS) *Jakkie Cilliers is the Head, African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria.

With nearly 20 polls this year, can a flounderin­g AU give elections the attention they desperatel­y need? How do we explain the developmen­tal and governance reversals now haunting Africa? Reasons for the apparent collapse of security are complex, but the thread running through insurgenci­es, coups and instabilit­y is slow developmen­t, bad governance and the nature of Africa’s demographi­c transition­s.

Geopolitic­s marked by increasing competitio­n makes for an unfavourab­le internatio­nal environmen­t. And although the global context influences Africa’s conflicts, a history of instabilit­y is the top indicator of future dissension in a country.

Conflict on the continent peaked at the height of the Cold War. Today, global power is shifting eastward, and the African Union’s (AU) traditiona­l partners – the European Union and United States (US) – are distracted and losing ground. China hasn’t stepped in to fill the gap despite Beijing’s Global Security Initiative. With various Gulf countries active in the Horn of Africa, the overall result is a proliferat­ion of bilateral, regional and internatio­nal initiative­s that allow for forum shopping by belligeren­ts.

All this comes when the AU is flounderin­g. It stepped back from the 2000 Lomé Convention and its commitment to condemn coups by, for example, allowing the repackagin­g of Zimbabwe’s 2017 coup to avoid suspending President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s regime from the AU. That mistake was repeated after Chad’s 2021 takeover. In 2019 in Sudan, the AU agreed the coup plotters could participat­e in the subsequent process to re-establish civilian control. These cases have incentivis­ed militaries elsewhere, who now believe they can take part in transition­al arrangemen­ts without respecting timelines or removing themselves from the political scene. Flawed elections and constituti­onal manipulati­on to allow regime survival occur regularly.

The AU has effectivel­y stepped back from the comprehens­ive African Peace and Security Architectu­re establishe­d under its Peace and Security Council (PSC) Protocol meant to ‘Silence the Guns’. Even its early warning unit has been disbanded.

African leaders appear to want the right to abuse their citizens without sanction by others – a situation in which national sovereignt­y is absolute. The result is that elections and subsequent government­s lack legitimacy. In response, citizens rebel or simply do their own thing. Turning these trends around will take time. Inclusive economic growth and good governance are vital, as the Institute for Security Studies’ analysis on its African Futures website highlights. Among other reforms, the AU and RECs should clarify and revisit the subsidiari­ty model governing relations between them. Some RECs respond to conflicts without real engagement by the AU, and the mantra of ‘African solutions’ isn’t always helpful, as it appears to allow interferen­ce by neighbouri­ng countries.

Most importantl­y, the AU must refocus on the tenets of good governance, including regular free and fair elections.

It should also review the challenges it now faces to enable a coherent response. That was done with the 1990 Declaratio­n on the Political and Socio-Economic Situation in Africa and the Fundamenta­l Changes Taking Place in the World, which led to the 1993 Cairo Declaratio­n on establishi­ng a mechanism for conflict prevention, management and resolution. The Cairo Declaratio­n eventually led to the AU’s comprehens­ive Peace and Security Architectu­re in 2002, when the associated PSC protocol was adopted. It’s time to reinvigora­te and recommit to that protocol and thoroughly revise and implement the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.

Apart from several training institutio­ns, little has come of the five regional standby forces constituti­ng the African Standby Force, including the necessary logistical capacity. And the AU’s conceptual­isation of peacekeepi­ng is out of sync with current security challenges. The Panel of the Wise, supposedly the AU’s most crucial conflict mediation tool, isn’t called in to mediate, even though mediation is needed more than ever.

Nor are the underfunde­d Special Envoys offices put to good use. The Peace Fund is now better funded with around US$400 million. Still, disburseme­nt is complex, and the monies are inadequate to cover even the most modest peacekeepi­ng operation. Meanwhile, the United Nations (UN) dithers about assuming financial responsibi­lity for AU peacekeepi­ng operations, which now outnumber its own. Instead of strengthen­ing the AU, the reforms led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame and various consulting companies have seen it regress by merging its Department of Political Affairs with the Department of Peace and Security, reverting to the architectu­re of its predecesso­r, the Organisati­on of African Unity. The African Peer Review Mechanism’s potential to provide peer review on good governance practices has also come to nought.

The AU struggles with divisions and inefficien­cies in its Bureau and Permanent Representa­tive Committee, which undertake political oversight and implement decisions of the Executive Committee and the Assembly of Heads of State and Government.

At the apex of the AU’s Peace and Security Architectu­re, the PSC averts its eyes from instabilit­y in larger countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan. It doesn’t effectivel­y monitor elections or pronounce on unconstitu­tional changes of government and rigged elections. The PSC seems overwhelme­d – deferring decisions, such as on the July 2023 Niger coup, to the regions, in this case the Economic Community of West African States. The AU and its security and governance architectu­re react rather than lead. Africa is now a G20 member, which will require proactive interventi­ons and heavy lifting on various complex issues. In summary, national, regional and internatio­nal governance in Africa is weakening, not strengthen­ing. At first blush, democracy has failed Africa. In reality, Africans still believe in the promise of democracy – but want elections to be free and fair. The AU and regional economic communitie­s (RECs) should agree.

If Africans insist that foreigners not criticise abuses happening on the continent, they should call them out themselves. Instead, the AU and many of its RECs look the other way when incumbents extend their stay in power by manipulati­ng the constituti­on and stealing elections.

African leaders appear to want the right to abuse their citizens without sanction by others – a situation in which national sovereignt­y is absolute. The result is that elections and subsequent government­s lack legitimacy. In response, citizens rebel or simply do their own thing.

Turning these trends around will take time. Inclusive economic growth and good governance are vital, as the Institute for Security Studies’ analysis on its African Futures website highlights. Among other reforms, the AU and RECs should clarify and revisit the subsidiari­ty model governing relations between them. Some RECs respond to conflicts without real engagement by the AU, and the mantra of ‘African solutions’ isn’t always helpful, as it appears to allow interferen­ce by neighbouri­ng countries.

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