NSW Covid cases predicted to hit 25,000 a day as state eases restrictions
New modelling shows New South Wales could record up to 25,000 cases of Covid-19 a day by the end of January, health minister Brad Hazzard says, as the state moves ahead with its easing of restrictions.
NSW recorded 1,360 new locally acquired cases and one death on Wednesday, with the Omicron variant continuing to spread and clusters linked to venues in Newcastle and Sydney. In light of the cases, Western Australia moved to tighten border restrictions, declaring NSW an “extreme risk jurisdiction” and urging Western Australians to return home.
It was the highest daily case numbers for the state since 11 September, and a considerable jump on the 803 cases recorded on Tuesday.
Of the new cases on Wednesday, 25 were confirmed to be Omicron, bringing the state’s total infections with the new variant to 110. Authorities say more cases will “likely” be linked to the Omicron variant in the coming days.
NSW Health said it “remained concerned” at the escalating rate of transmission, particularly in Newcastle, with “venues linked to cases who are likely to have the Omicron variant of concern”.
The modelling showing cases could skyrocket in the next six weeks came from the University of New South Wales, Hazzard said, adding the infection rate of the Omicron variant was at 1.5.
He said cases had been increasing exponentially, “double, every two to three days”, and that, according to “simple maths”, NSW could see case numbers in the tens of thousands by January.
“The one thing that would appear to be likely with the Omicron variant is the vaccine is not stopping transmission, the transmission appears to be quite high, we’ve seen it happening in Newcastle,” Hazzard said.
“It may well be spreading across NSW as we stand here talking about it … the reproductive rate is concerning.
“What [health experts] are telling us is that by the end of January, we could be looking at 25,000 cases of the virus every single day, so that takes us to about 175,000 a week … that’s a big difference from 1,360 today, which already is a cause for concern.
“We may not get to 25,000 cases every day, but we could.”
NSW has scrapped a range of restrictions, including lifting density limits, no longer requiring QR code check-ins at certain businesses, and masks only being required on public transport, at airports and on planes.
NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, has defended the relaxation of mask and check-in rules amid the surge in cases, saying he has “complete confidence” the hospital system will cope thanks to the state’s 93% vaccination coverage.
He rejected suggestions his government was sending confusing messages by warning cases could climb and urging caution, while at the same time easing restrictions and encouraging people to “enjoy the best that NSW has to offer”.
“It is all about instilling confidence and ensuring everyone has a safe Christmas,” he said.
Western Australia said on Wednesday NSW was now an “extreme risk jurisdiction”, meaning travellers from the state will not be permitted into WA unless an exemption is granted.
Premier Mark McGowan said anyone from WA who was in NSW and with an approved G2G pass should return immediately.
“This is not a situation to take lightly and it is necessary because my priority is the health of Western Australians first and foremost,” he said.
In spite of the restrictions easing in NSW, chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, urged people to continue to maintain Covid-safe practices, specifically asking people to wear masks indoors even where there isn’t a mandate to do so.
“That’s a matter for government in setting those mandates and all I’m saying is from a public health position, I am strongly recommending we keep masks and I’m asking the community to do so,” she said.
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“It’s a very tiny act and you’re actually protecting yourself but more importantly you’re protecting others.”
Chant attributed the rise in cases to the Omicron variant, but warned there was still not enough information to make an informed assessment of its severity.
“We still don’t have enough information to inform our assessment about the severity profile, but we believe that that information will be emerging over the next two weeks.”
The eased restrictions come as the state changes its approach to close contacts, moving towards what Chant described as a “light touch” definition. This will only focus on household contacts of cases, including partners who don’t always live with a case, housemates and their partners.
She also added there could still be situations where bigger groups are considered close contacts, if they were at high risk venues such as nightclubs.
More than 200 people who attended the Argyle House club in Newcastle on Wednesday night tested positive for Covid, with at least one person infected with the Omicron variant.
Hazzard took the opportunity to urge people celebrating the end of a difficult year to remain cautious.
“If you don’t need to ... be in a jam-packed environment with no windows ... maybe it’s not a good time.”