Abolish bid serious as England is riding roughshod over Wales
As the Senedd election gets closer, Welsh devolution is at a crossroads, argues political editor-at-large Martin Shipton
UNTIL recently, constitutional change had gone one way since democratic devolution came to Wales in 1999, with power flowing from Westminster to Cardiff.
But since the Brexit vote, and especially since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, the movement has been in the opposite direction.
What’s happening has been characterised as a Westminster powergrab aimed at rolling back devolution.
In 2016, at the final election before the Assembly became the Senedd, a small group that got minimal publicity and did little campaigning stood as the Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party. It got 44,286 of the nation’s regional list votes – a significantly greater number than the Green Party, which got 30,211.
At this year’s Senedd election, Abolish is a true competitor – seen on the right as an antidote to increased levels of support for Welsh independence. In fact, Abolish points out that opinion polls consistently show greater support for shutting the Welsh Parliament down than for Wales becoming an independent state.
Abolish supporters are very active on social media, constantly sniping at the Senedd and the pro-devolution parties, and sometimes overstepping the mark into offensiveness.
Many of the most prominent activists with Abolish had previously been Ukip and/or Brexit Party campaigners,
More worrying, from the point of view of pro-devolutionists, is that they have supporters for their cause in the Welsh Conservative Party.
In fact, there is polling evidence to show that a majority of Tory voters in Wales would vote to scrap the Senedd in a referendum. A YouGov poll last month showed that 59% of them would vote to abolish it and only 25% to keep it. The rest were mostly “don’t knows”.
Throughout the two decades and more of devolution, the anti-devolution camp has persistently conflated the institution and the executive, blaming “the Assembly” for every perceived shortcoming of the administration in a way that would be inconceivable with regard to Westminster or any other legislature.
Small wonder that a number of Tory candidates declared themselves
as abolitionists, that pro-devolutionist MS Suzy Davies was deselected and that former Assembly Member Jonathan Morgan didn’t even make a candidates’ shortlist when he told a party panel he would vote to keep the Senedd.
In what could be seen as a pincer movement, the UK Government applied its own pressure, using its 80-seat majority to stamp its authority on the devolved administrations, which were seen as likely hindrances to a project geared to bolstering “global Britain” as a monolithic postBrexit force on the world stage.
By the time the Senedd election campaign began in earnest, it was clear that serious constitutional clashes were in the offing.
After winning an 80-seat majority in the December 2019 General Election, Boris Johnson had carte blanche to proceed as he pleased.
His main mission was to “get Brexit done”, and what became seen as a change of attitude for the worse by the government of Wales and Scotland didn’t take long to materialise.
With his eye on a potential trade deal with the United States that could necessitate the lowering of standards in policy areas like the environment, food and animal welfare, Mr Johnson sought to ensure that there could be no question of the devolved administrations being able to veto any such change.
The UK Internal Market Act gave the UK Government the power to force the three devolved countries to allow overseas goods to be sold that would not meet EU standards.
It also allowed the UK Government to spend money on infrastructure projects in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland without reference to the devolved administrations, driving a coach and horses through the existing devolution settlements.
The UK Shared Prosperity Fund – meant as a replacement for EU regional aid money, from which Wales has benefited enormously, especially in the devolved era – will be distributed by the UK Government, not the Welsh Government.
Last month, European Transition Minister Jeremy Miles reacted angrily to the confirmation that the UK Government would be bypassing the
Welsh Government again to distribute money in Wales from its “Levelling Up Fund”, aimed at regenerating poorer communities.
He said: “This is the UK Government taking funding that would previously have been allocated to Wales to spend in line with the priorities this Senedd – elected by the people of Wales – has identified.
“This means decisions made by Whitehall departments with no history of delivering projects within Wales, no record of working with communities in Wales and no understanding of the priorities of those communities. In practice, this will mean that the UK Government is taking decisions on devolved matters in Wales without being answerable to the Senedd on behalf of the people of Wales.
“We now face the prospect of a centralised, Whitehall-led approach instead of a regionalised, made-inWales approach.”
First Minister Mark Drakeford said Mr Johnson’s attempts to roll back devolution could end with the breakup of the UK.
If Labour and/or Plaid Cymru are in government after May 6, we can expect a continuation of this war of attrition. There is no certain outcome.
Mr Johnson’s priority will be to appease his supporters in England, few of whom have sympathy for
Welsh or Scottish devolution, which they regard as a drain on the UK’s resources.
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price has characterised the UK Government’s attitude to the Welsh Government as “indifference bordering on contempt”.
Constitutional crises are often spoken about but rarely come to much.
This time, though, we could be heading for a real crisis.
Abolish’s aim may seem outlandish now, yet Ukip had its beginnings at the fringe of politics and eventually changed the course of British history.
With the future of the UK in doubt, the choice for the people of Wales could within a few years lie between a leap into the unknown with independence or assimilation into a greater England.
In the meantime, it makes sense for those who support devolution or independence for Wales to take the challenge from Abolish seriously.
The fact is they represent a section of the community that believes the Senedd hasn’t worked for them. To call them “anti-Welsh” or “traitors” is insulting and counterproductive.
The best way to counter their views is to refrain from abusing them, to argue coherently with them and to deliver tangible benefits for the people of Wales.