It may feel like a truly boring election, but it might just usher in a new era for politics
It seems like nothing is changing but wins for the SNP and Plaid, allied to change in Ireland could bring about changes that will reshape the UK forever
SO, it’s official. This is the boring election. Even though it could also see Britain finally and irrevocably fall apart after England votes Reform, Scotland votes SNP, Wales votes Plaid and Northern Ireland doesn’t vote, but keeps a Sinn Féin First Minister.
Oh yes, and the “totally marginal” Greens trounce Labour on both sides of the Tweed.
Boring?
Of course, nothing’s certain. There are ifs, buts, maybes and the actual fact of voter preferences.
But if this level of probable change doesn’t get you going, what will?
The problem in Scotland is that a pro-indy majority does not represent change. We’ve had four Yes parliaments already, over which London politicians, media and pundits batted scarcely a collective eyelid. Yes success isn’t new. And what isn’t new, doesn’t make news.
What lacks serious jeopardy for incumbents (especially jumped-up nationalist ones), lacks excitement. What’s steady is tedious. What’s insurgent is cool. And thus the SNP are not cool.
According to pollsters
Ipsos, they begin polling day “comfortably ahead” on 35% in the constituencies. And “comfortable” leads produce no major upset, no change of Scottish government, no terrible upset for John Swinney, no crushing of independence, no egg on Yes faces … jings, I’m falling asleep already.
Thus, the collective judgement. Broadcasters and commentators have deployed a solitary word of Scots in their summation of the electorate – scunnered.
And to be crystal clear, I’m not arguing with that. Folk are indeed scunnered but that doesn’t mean they’re apathetic.
It doesn’t mean they’re hopeless – not yet. Scunnerment is not just a verdict on the SNP, it’s a verdict on devolution itself.
The Scottish Parliament is underwhelming, underpowered and circumscribed when Scots need so much more.
Does any Unionist party think Holyrood could turbocharge Scotland out of the British doldrums, if a new government run by them was in charge, deploying their improbable combinations of more nurses, teachers, doctors with tax cuts? Of course not. Holyrood wasn’t designed to outshine the “Mother of Parliaments” or outrun the Britpack. It’s designed to tick over. And ticking over politics does not set the heather alight.
If there’s a low turnout, one might conclude that the limited powers of the Scottish Parliament and Government do not inspire voter confidence in the journey ahead.
This devolved set-up, hobbled by the Internal Markets Act, limited borrowing powers and no control over energy; this journey tethered to the foundering ship Britannia; this devolved parliament will not transform Scotland into a water, energy and engineering-rich superpower, whoever is running it.
That was never the intention. And that is kinda boring.
We need transformation. Indeed, the SNP also need transformation. Since theirs is only optimistic destination and the opposition is woeful, the SNP will remain almost unbeatable for another five or 20 years – and that level of incumbency doesn’t promote soul-searching, modernising, inclusion or new thinking. We need the energy of another crack at independence to restore focus. So does the opposition. Scottish Labour – about to be drubbed despite disowning Keir Starmer – will have transformation forced upon them. They’ll have to set up as an independent Scottish party and if radical voices prevail Labour should also reconsider its stance on independence – the only scenario that will see the party thrive.
Ditto the Conservatives.
In Norway, just before 1905, Conservatives were the last party to realise independence was inevitable – something to be ushered in and owned, not resisted.
It seems extraordinary – but across these islands, extraordinary is quietly happening.
YESTERDAY’S poll suggesting a majority of Irish people would support a united Ireland within the EU – with 67% support in Northern Ireland and 62% in the Republic – simply took my breath away. And before the withering doubters claim that sentiment applies to a change next century, those polled were asked how they’d vote tomorrow. Tomorrow.
Support of 67% for a united Ireland means a substantial tranche of “loyalists” are ready to jump ship. People whose entire identity was tied up in the Union, people whose forebears and relatives embarked on armed struggle to keep Northern Ireland British. These diehard Unionists are looking the future calmly in the face and spotting far better prospects out of the UK and within Ireland and the EU.
That is not boring. But it’s not leading the bulletins.
Neither is the poll, which suggests the Scottish Greens could do so well, they’ll actually be the second-largest party and technically the opposition to the SNP (whilst of course supporting many of their policies).
And even if that mind-blowing outcome doesn’t quite happen, and Reform come second, how disconcerting and new will that be?
Will Malcolm Offord take the time away from his relentless wealth and job creation, six homes, five cars and six yachts to lead his motley crew at Holyrood?
Will the press corps clype if he quite evidently swans off during the rest of the week and applies only to apply the Brylcreem before FMQs?
John Swinney pledged a day one vote in the new session to request Section 30 powers for indyref2 from Number 10.
Will that happen without an SNP majority but with a thumping independence majority with the Greens? And how will a broken Starmer – or his successor – respond? That’s not boring.
But discussing such an outcome now seems to endorse the Yes majority most newspaper pundits fear. So, debate revolves around minor disagreements over waiting lists, delayed discharge, education performance and school behaviour – vitally important issues, but issues upon which most Holyrood parties are actually agreed.
Might post-election co-operation break out over a Citizens’ Assembly to end the stalemate over council tax reform? Might all parties – except Reform – back a funded kindergarten stage so Scotland rejoins Europe in policy if not trading relationship?
This could happen – especially if such democratically sensible outcomes are talked up not down by the media.
Swinney’s pledged a day one vote in the new session to request Section 30 powers
Meantime, I expect Yessers won’t be distracted.
You don’t need to love every SNP policy initiative (or lack thereof) to back them.
You don’t need to endorse the Greens’ position on trans rights to back them.
These parties constitute our only joint ticket out of here. So, use your heids.
THERE may be a lower turnout and a lower SNP vote at this election – a “loveless” win, like the “thin” landslide achieved two years ago by Starmer. The SNP might fail to win more than half the seats in a parliament designed to prevent that ever happening.
In short, political gravity may not be defied today, but in the context of Broken Britain, a win will be a win. And if it’s matched in Wales by Plaid Cymru, a new political narrative will be born.
And there’s nothing boring about that.
In short, political gravity may not be defied today but in the context of Broken Britain, a win is a win. And if it’s matched in Wales by Plaid Cymru, a new political narrative is born.
And there’s nothing boring about that.
A point Yessers can make by standing with placards outside Holyrood tomorrow from 6pm. And thanks to a non-contagious but persistent and unpredictable cough, I’ll be there too, not commentating on BBC Scotland.