The five things Boris Johnson must do to restore his Tory credentials

The PM needs to discover some guiding principles to underscore his policy agenda

It’s not hard to despair over the future of a government that has badly lost its way. Yes, the retreat of Covid is welcome news. And, yes, the country is all the better for Brexit being an established fact rather than a matter of heated debate. But, fresh from a brief holiday, Boris Johnson must discover some guiding principles to underscore his policy agenda if he is to avoid being remembered as simply having limped from one emergency to the next.

First, he needs to signal that he is serious about discipline on state spending. It is 20 years since any Chancellor presented a Budget which included a surplus, with the pandemic punching another hole in the public finances. Making spending cuts might be difficult but, at the very least, Johnson needs to keep a lid on it. Any proposals for more funding in one area should require corresponding cuts in others. Higher pay for nurses? Fine, but we will need to find that by bearing down on, say, state pensions.

Second, a pledge to reduce the tax burden as a proportion of national income is needed. Estimates vary, but it seems eminently possible that, under a Conservative government which purports to be pro-enterprise, taxes will rise to their highest point since the Second World War. The backwash of coronavirus might mean little room for significant tax cuts immediately, but Johnson could indicate that he’d like to move to a situation in which, by 2030, the state is collecting no more than 30 per cent of GDP in tax. It’s currently edging towards 40 per cent.

Third, the Government should face down demands for higher pay unless these are clearly linked to proven gains in efficiency and productivity. Pay hikes based on sentimental concepts of how “hard-working” people may be need resisting. The process of national pay bargaining altogether ought to be ended, with salaries set at the level of individual schools or hospitals. The present system is a recipe for industrial strife – which we are already braced for this winter.

Fourth, economic growth needs to underpin policy thinking. If an idea is unlikely to raise GDP, that’s a good reason to can it. Boosting national income isn’t the only consideration but, with the present state of tax, spending and debt, it matters a lot. If growth can return to around 3 per cent per annum rather than the sluggish 1.5 per cent before Covid, many other problems are substantially mitigated.

Lastly, Johnson should recognise that he hasn’t yet fully delivered his pledge to “Get Brexit Done”. Our departure from the EU is more a process than a single event, and rocket launchers should be placed under government efforts to meaningfully diverge from the red tape we’ve inherited, and to redesign how we approach regulatory policy in future.

Johnson might yet emerge as a prime minister with a clear sense of direction for the country. But I’m not optimistic. At the moment, he seems less attracted to these five broad, free-market principles than to centralised, Soviet-style Five Year Plans.