Huawei and why we need to talk about China
During the Cold War, William Perry, the US defence chief, received a late-night call saying that 170 intercontinental ballistic missiles had been launched from Soviet territory and the president should be woken to confirm a protocol response.
Thankfully, a technician quickly realised a training simulation tape had accidentally been triggered. One can only imagine the consequences had the error taken longer to come to light.
Thirty years on, the likelihood of nuclear attack has dissipated. But in his
book The Perfect Weapon, David Sanger argues that cyber weapons are now the biggest threat we face.
Cyber attacks have made security more complex and sophisticated. Debate over joining our Five Eyes partners in banning Huawei from UK telecoms, while important, ducks fundamental issues: firstly, the absence of any agreed international security rules on how our expanding and borderless digital world should operate; and secondly, how we adapt to a rising China, whose economy will soon become the largest in the world.
In 1962, John Kennedy said dozens of countries would develop nuclear capabilities. Today there are fewer than 10, thanks to international agreements, societal pressure and the complexity of their design. The threat has been largely replaced by a cyber-based one, unmonitored by any international governance and Geneva Conventiontype consequences for their misuse.
No country declares its cyber offensive capability, let alone reports its use. What makes this weapon system so dangerous is that it is cheap, accessible, and attacks are highly effective in achieving political and economic objectives without prompting a military response. They can also be denied. This puts 5G in a more sober context.
Its roll-out will transform the cyber environment. Billions of machines will connect across borders. It will increase our reliance on data, automation and AI. As society becomes more reliant on them we invest ever greater trust in their integrity and security.
The change is fast paced, daunting in its scale and potential. It underlines how our rules and standards of doing business no longer apply. And this takes us to China, whose economic, political and military influence has grown at an unprecedented scale and speed – matched only by its ambitions to become a global power.
The Huawei debate masks the need for urgent conversations about China’s place at the international table which must include agreement on an operational framework to support future security and trade relationships. The trend toward a global, hi-tech playing field is inevitable and it is important that field remains level. It requires grown-up conversations not just about technology, but also cooperation on long-term strategic intentions and clear parameters over security. On the international stage, China plays contradictory roles. It is both the largest carbon emitter and investor in renewable energy. It is a large contributor to UN peacekeeping while advancing its international military footprint. It is investing in regional infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative while Chinese companies benefit from state-backed loans and inferior labour standards. Until these wider issues are resolved we should be cautious about granting Huawei direct access to our networks.
How should the West respond? We must recognise the colossal change 5G will bring, with Britain playing a critical role in crafting an international rulebook. We must do more than agree with our Five Eyes partners – we should lead in defending and shaping the global security standards our complex world requires.
Tobias Ellwood is a defence minister