Ebola cases could reach 1.4 million by January, scientists predict
WHO warns epidemic may ‘rumble on’
LONDON — The number of Ebola cases in West Africa could surpass 1.4 million by January and the disease could become endemic, scientists warned in two separate reports published Tuesday.
The World Health Organization said that unless “drastic improvements in control measures” were made, the number of cases — currently 5,800 — could nearly quadru- ple to 21,000 by the end of next month.
“We’ve rather modestly only extended the projections to Nov. 2, but if you go to ... Jan 2, you’re into hundreds of thousands,” said Christopher Dye, WHO’s head of strategy and a co-author of the study.
Dye said there’s a concern that the virus, which has killed more than 2,800 people this year in the deadliest outbreak in history, could become a “permanent feature of the human population.”
The epidemic might simply “rumble on as it has for the last few months for the next few years,” he said.
Dye said it was worrisome that new cases were popping up in areas that hadn’t previously reported Ebola, such as in parts of Guinea. But he admitted the prediction was an educated guess.
“This is a bit like weather forecasting. We can do it a few days in advance, but looking a few weeks or months ahead is very difficult,” Dye said.
The agency’s numbers seem “somewhat pessimistic” and do not account for infection control efforts already underway, said Dr. Richard Wenzel, a Virginia Commonwealth University scientist who formerly led the International Society for Infectious Diseases.
Other outside experts questioned WHO’s projections and said Ebola’s spread ultimately would be slowed not only by containment measures but by changes in people’s behaviour.
“It’s a big assumption that nothing will change in the current outbreak response,” said Dr. Armand Sprecher, an infectious diseases specialist at Doctors Without Borders.
“Ebola outbreaks usually end when people stop touching the sick,” he said. “The outbreak is not going to end tomorrow, but there are things we can do to reduce the case count.”
One thing scientists did agree on was that the next few weeks would be crucial.
“The window for controlling this outbreak is closing,” said Adam Kucharski, a research fellow in infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
In recent weeks, health officials worldwide have stepped up efforts to provide aid, but the virus is still spreading.
There aren’t enough hospital beds, health workers or even soap and water in the hardesthit West African countries: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, where a three-day lockdown last weekend to identify Ebola victims and find corpses was so successful another one is being considered for this week.
Last week, the U. S. announced it would build more than a dozen medical centres in Liberia and send 3,000 troops to help. Britain and France have also pledged to build treatment centres in Sierra Leone and Guinea and the World Bank and UNICEF have sent more than $1 million worth of supplies to the region.